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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    Same example that came to my mind. Both John and Brent have what I call unstable stats in that the efficient numbers they post are highly due to the fact
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 8, 2002
      Same example that came to my mind.  Both John and Brent have what I
      call "unstable" stats in that the efficient numbers they post are
      highly due to the fact that they limit how often they shoot.  In
      games where they use more possessions, they struggle a lot.  In other
      words, they are both very useful role players doing what they do. 
      There isn't much reason to believe that they can suddenly turn into
      20 ppg scorers (despite what their dad says).

      what's very interesting about the barry boys, if you look closely at their stats, is that their numbers show them performing more in lines of what a point guard does (i.e. how often a PG shoots, passes, etc. per ball possession), but a point guard with a low possession factor (touches/min). as an example, the last couple of years both shot the ball only 1/5 to 1/4 of the time they had the ball, are good shooters (and have been great shooters at times in their careers), and pass the ball 2/3 of the time they handle it, but they get only 1.0 to 1.1 to almost 1.2 touches/min. most point guards shoot 1/5 to 1/4 of the time they have the ball (even only 1/6), and pass about 2/3 of the time , but have possession factors of 1.5 to 2.0 touches/min. early in his career steve kerr was quite similar to the barry boys...

      they get enough touches to be 20 pts/g scorers - easily - but do not shoot enough per time they get the ball (and jon doesn't get the minutes). over the past 3-4 years players who have scored 20 pts/g but with possession factors similar to the barrys have shot the ball 1/3 to 1/2 of the time they got ahold of it...

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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