Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?
On Tue, 8 Oct 2002, John Hollinger wrote:
> Here's some things I can pretty much guarantee:
> 1) Several players had mid-career fluke years and can reliably expect
> to be much worse. I may have forgot a couple names from the study in
> the book, but I will bet any amount of money that Jon Barry will be
> far, far, far worse this year.
Barry's 2002 season was indeed his best one so far, but was it really that
much better than his 2000 season? That is, I agree that a downturn is
almost inevitable, but if he returns to his 2000 form, it's not that steep
a downturn. I'm also thinking of his bro Brent, who was a fairly awful
player with the Clips, Heat, and Bulls and magically became one of the
NBA's more efficient players when he joined the Sonics, where he's
proceded to simply become even more efficient.
> 5) By midseason, everyone will look back on Michael Olowokandi's
> maximum contract talk and have a good laugh.
Heh, yes. There's a corollary to this guaranteed prediction though: a
lot of UN-predictability about how the Clippers will turn out. Baylor's
made the right moves: got the PG the team needed for a good but
expendable forward; did not break the bank by overpaying or overcommiting
themselves to a long-term contract of Ike Austin/McIlvaine proportions for
But Brand said all last season that he and the rest of the young players
would be looking to see how the Clips treated Olowokandi, as they mulled
their willingness to make long-term commitments to the Clippers. Kandi's
bummed, and there's stirrings of restlessness amongs the other players.
Many of them have their contracts running out this year, and Brand
observed that a team doesn't typically want to have all of its key
players' contracts expiring at once (maybe a future GM, that Brand).
Miller said he was expecting a contract extension when he arrived in
And then there's the multitudinous injuries, Olowokandi's sore knee simply
being the latest. Those injuries make a slow Clipper start highly likely;
can they recover and keep playing with enthusiasm and gel as a team? Or
will moodiness and frustration set in?
There's 4 clearly superior teams in the West, maybe 5 if you count
Portland. But the next 5 slots are pretty much up for grabs: Minnesota
probably has to be regarded among the better of those 5, but among Utah,
Seattle, the Clippers, and Phoenix it'll probably be a rat race.
- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
> Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?From the article on my website:
The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
Defensive Stops =
+ STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)
Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling