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Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • John Hollinger
    I got my copy of the book in the mail today, so it should be in stores any day now. As far as Sacramento, yes I do think they are the team to beat, although I
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 7, 2002
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      I got my copy of the book in the mail today, so it should be in
      stores any day now.

      As far as Sacramento, yes I do think they are the team to beat,
      although I wouldn't be surprised if they won fewer games in the
      regular season while Peja recovers from the ankle and Webber deals
      with the trial

      Here's some things I can pretty much guarantee:

      1) Several players had mid-career fluke years and can reliably expect
      to be much worse. I may have forgot a couple names from the study in
      the book, but I will bet any amount of money that Jon Barry will be
      far, far, far worse this year. Other good bets are Bob Sura, Elden
      Campbell, Corliss Williamson and Bobby Jackson.

      2) As you might expect given that I named Barry and Williamson
      above, I expect Detroit to sink quite a bit. I think they'll miss the
      playoffs entirely.

      3) The lack of a decent shooting guard will prevent New Orleans from
      winning the East.

      4) Shawn Kemp will be a disaster in Orlando, but at least he won't
      cost them much.

      5) By midseason, everyone will look back on Michael Olowokandi's
      maximum contract talk and have a good laugh.



      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > > Thanks for the promo Dean. I'd have been disappointed if you
      agreed
      > > with me on everything, that ain't what this list is about. 8^)
      > >
      >
      > So it sounded like you were suggesting Sacramento as the team to
      > beat. A few years ago, someone on the internet kept track of
      > people's forecasts of win-loss records. There wasn't a constraint
      on
      > making things add up. A couple of magazines also forecasted w/l
      > records and they summarized them. The interesting part was the so-
      > called experts at the magazines didn't do well. I guess you're now
      > part of that realm. Is your book out? It's not in stores here.
      >
      > Anyway, one of the interesting predictions we all made here last
      year
      > was that Jordan would get hurt. Are there any other specific
      > predictions we want to make this year? Frankly, I still gotta
      think
      > that MJ is going to miss at least 10 games again, but I didn't do
      the
      > analysis I did last year.
      >
      > Who among the new Wizards is going to flame out or do well? A lot
      > are now saying that Larry Hughes is lost in the shuffle again. My
      > recollection is that he could be a Rick Fox kind of player at best
      > (which is already what Bryon Russell is).
      >
      > Why do people think that Van Horn is going to suddenly wake up in
      > Philly? He hasn't shot well whether he was a key cog in the
      offense
      > or a secondary player.
      >
      > Any quantitative estimate of wins for Detroit? Such a weird team
      now
      > and they were weird last year. Their D was more robust than just
      > Wallace, because of Robinson who has been soooo underrated as a
      > defender. But they really overachieved last year and there is
      going
      > to be some tough times, you have to imagine. I don't think losing
      > Stackhouse was that big a deal, but someone is going to have to
      teach
      > Hamilton some D.
      >
      > With both Finley and Nowitzki playing over the summer and the
      history
      > of players getting injured after that kind of off-season schedule,
      > who gets hurt first? Or is it going to be Nash, who just plays
      like
      > he wants to visit the ER?
      >
      > Easiest pick -- Sacramento won't win close to the 70 games that
      Bibby
      > predicted. By a pretty reliable method, there is at least an 80%
      > chance that they won't do as well as they did last year.
      >
      > I didn't touch Orlando in my look before. It would seem that you
      > could identify the most similar players to Hill and look for any of
      > them that missed a big chunk of time and see how they came back.
      > It's now more than 2 seasons since he made 2nd team All-NBA. Like
      > the Admiral, he's been considered "nice", so will he defer to
      > McGrady? I personally doubt it. I'm guessing that there will be
      > rust and, having had major ankle injuries myself and seen other
      guys
      > with bad ankles (Webber), I would not doubt that he gets hurt again.
      >
      > DeanO
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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