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Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... So it sounded like you were suggesting Sacramento as the team to beat. A few years ago, someone on the internet kept track of people s forecasts of
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 7, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > Thanks for the promo Dean. I'd have been disappointed if you agreed
      > with me on everything, that ain't what this list is about. 8^)
      >

      So it sounded like you were suggesting Sacramento as the team to
      beat. A few years ago, someone on the internet kept track of
      people's forecasts of win-loss records. There wasn't a constraint on
      making things add up. A couple of magazines also forecasted w/l
      records and they summarized them. The interesting part was the so-
      called experts at the magazines didn't do well. I guess you're now
      part of that realm. Is your book out? It's not in stores here.

      Anyway, one of the interesting predictions we all made here last year
      was that Jordan would get hurt. Are there any other specific
      predictions we want to make this year? Frankly, I still gotta think
      that MJ is going to miss at least 10 games again, but I didn't do the
      analysis I did last year.

      Who among the new Wizards is going to flame out or do well? A lot
      are now saying that Larry Hughes is lost in the shuffle again. My
      recollection is that he could be a Rick Fox kind of player at best
      (which is already what Bryon Russell is).

      Why do people think that Van Horn is going to suddenly wake up in
      Philly? He hasn't shot well whether he was a key cog in the offense
      or a secondary player.

      Any quantitative estimate of wins for Detroit? Such a weird team now
      and they were weird last year. Their D was more robust than just
      Wallace, because of Robinson who has been soooo underrated as a
      defender. But they really overachieved last year and there is going
      to be some tough times, you have to imagine. I don't think losing
      Stackhouse was that big a deal, but someone is going to have to teach
      Hamilton some D.

      With both Finley and Nowitzki playing over the summer and the history
      of players getting injured after that kind of off-season schedule,
      who gets hurt first? Or is it going to be Nash, who just plays like
      he wants to visit the ER?

      Easiest pick -- Sacramento won't win close to the 70 games that Bibby
      predicted. By a pretty reliable method, there is at least an 80%
      chance that they won't do as well as they did last year.

      I didn't touch Orlando in my look before. It would seem that you
      could identify the most similar players to Hill and look for any of
      them that missed a big chunk of time and see how they came back.
      It's now more than 2 seasons since he made 2nd team All-NBA. Like
      the Admiral, he's been considered "nice", so will he defer to
      McGrady? I personally doubt it. I'm guessing that there will be
      rust and, having had major ankle injuries myself and seen other guys
      with bad ankles (Webber), I would not doubt that he gets hurt again.

      DeanO
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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