Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?
- Thanks for the promo Dean. I'd have been disappointed if you agreed
with me on everything, that ain't what this list is about. 8^)
--- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...> wrote:
> Just an FYI. John Hollinger has his picks on CNNSi.com. I
> don't agree with him on everything but I haven't had the time to
> think about things as he has.
> NJ is going to be good. Their young guys have the room to make
> mistakes and get better. Mutombo helps an already solid D.
> Philly is going to struggle. Larry Brown has held that team
> for a few years. Not sure how he's going to do it now. He has a
> chance, but I don't see how they get much better than last year.
> More likely out of the playoffs.
> Boston -- who knows? Pierce is good, but the pieces don't fit.
> Washington -- all depends on whether MJ plays. Like last year
> is a good chance of him getting hurt. Several of us picked that
> last year.
> Dallas -- Nowitzki is carrying that team. If Nelson recognizes
> and starts building the D around him, they have an outstanding
> of winning the title. But Nellie usually goes for the show.
> Sacramento -- Y'know, if Webber is around and healthy (mentally and
> physically) for the playoffs, they should have the refs feeling
> guilty about last year and can beat the Lakers. But if Webber gets
> dragged through court, the team could disappoint. There are some
> solid indications that they will drop a few more games this year.
> LA -- Good reason to shorten the season and get to the playoffs.
> They don't care enough to do anything until the playoffs. It could
> hurt them this year, though.
> Portland -- Sabonis being back probably helps. He was a huge
> advantage to them before, but I don't know about his health and he
> was declining. Stoudamire is getting replaced by guys who aren't
> much better or worse. Someone just needs to tell Sheed to Play
> Ball! He ain't great, but he's good enough to do more than he does.
> Phoenix -- Purely a gut thing, having seen both Jacobsen and
> Stoudemire this offseason, but I think this team is going to
> surprise. Both guys played well in summer leagues, as did Joe
> Johnson. Marbury can't play that poorly again. The big Q is the
> coach. I think the Suns keep regressing in coaches. Ainge was
> good. Skiles was pretty good. And Johnson didn't show much.
> Orlando -- I really don't know.
> NY -- Could be headed for 15 win season.
> Toronto -- Olajuwon is mostly washed up, but I'd say they need him
> for the D. Mo-Pete should have a very good year. Without
> I don't think this team makes the playoffs. With him, they could
> middle of the road playoff team.
> Detroit -- The Stack trade changes the chemistry of the team quite
> bit, maybe for the better. They were almost definitely going to
> decline this coming season if they stood pat. Now, I give them
> better odds of improving and at least staying in the 40's for wins.
> Miami -- Riley will find a way to win. They might even finish 2nd
> behind NJ. Riley has a bunch of bruisers in his camp right now who
> will dominate the boards. He will find a way to bring out the best
> in Jones and Butler. They may be the ugliest 50 win team ever.
> Indiana -- I dunno. If Reggie has a year left in him, that helps.
> I'm not sure if he does. O'Neal is overrated as a scorer. I'm not
> sure who does score on this team. It's going to take a lot of
> massaging to make this a good team, but it is possible. Brad
> has been good for a while, but doesn't get the touches. Al
> Harrington has an upward curve, but not sure where it's going to
> up this year. If O'Neal has another notch to his game, that would
> make this team very good. I just really don't know if he has it.
> Bucks -- My understanding is that Karl feels more comfortable with
> what he's got now. It should be an easier team to coach. He lost
> some talent, but I think it will be easier to get his guys to focus
> now on what's important. Really a hunch, but also based on the
> that they were one of the east's best teams until March. One bad
> slide killed them.
> Warriors -- Jiri Welsch can play. He'll turn the ball over a lot
> a rook. I've heard, though, that the new coaching regime will give
> them a pretty good shot. Almost guaranteed this team will win 29+
> games, which is a definite improvement.
> --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...> wrote:
> > here are my predictions shooting from the hip:
> > Atlantic
> > 1 Nets: Trade was a wash but Jefferson and Kenyon may break out
> > they could improve on last year.
> > 2 Sixers: Should bounce back (VHorn will help like Kukoc did in
> > but I think that they will never be back to 00-01 form for some
> > 3 Magic: GHill should be back but they still have no inside game
> > unless MCgrady becomes Jordan they are a first round playoff exit
> > 4 Celts: Baker trade hurts with the cap, doesn't help in talent;
> > actually didn't thinkt they were that good last year
> > 5 Wizards: they'll be on the fringes of contention and could
> > someone if MJ stays healthy (which is very unlikely)
> > 6 NY: Mcdyess trade was good but they really need to tear down
> > start over--this team is still fundamentally flawed (trade spree
> > houston while (if?) it is still possible)
> > 7 Miami: w/out even a sick Zo this team won't be able to score or
> > defend. I like Butler but like their rivals in NY, they need to
> > rid of the big contracts.
> > Central
> > 1 Toronto: I don't love this team or anything but this seems like
> > of those years that expectations are low and when that happens
> > Wilkens always gets his guys to play well.
> > 2 Hornets: They, along with NJ and Philly, are the best in the
> > conference. But when I watch them play I always find them more
> > beatable then they should be on paper. could use a real 2-guard.
> > 3 Pacers: I like their team, it is balanced. everyone hates
> > but the Rose trade was good and this team should be good.
> > 4 Pistons: Oy was the Stack trade ugly. They can't score but
> > defend and that makes me think they could maybe sneak into the
> > playoffs. Billups signing seemed silly to me.
> > 5 Bucks: I never liked this team when it went deep in the
> > and I still don't like it. Karl seems like he is mentally gone
> > he was in the end in seattle and this combined with their crappy
> > will make this a crappy season.
> > 6 Atlanta: talent for talent the Big Dog trade was good but he
> > duplicates strength. they need a real backcourt (i would trade
> > 7 Bulls: They should be better than they have been since MJ.
> > I would dump Rose (if possible) he won't be a real factor on the
> > good bull team.
> > 8 Cavs: ugly. they need a good draft to get out of this
> > Though I wonder if they could trade Zydrunas to a contender. If
> > healthy, he could really help a good team and if he gets hurt
> > insurance might cover it.
> > Midwest
> > 1 Spurs: Duncan is enough to win the division but the supporting
> > is not good. Ginoblli will help but that ain't enough to beat LA.
> > 2 Mavs: I always hate these no D teams. Dirk is great but
> > is no real center particularly if you have no other real
> > frontcourt. they'll win in the regular season but they are
> > overrated. I actually think portland would beat 'em in a 7game
> > 3 T'wolves: took a step back. They gotta do something drastic to
> > breakout of this first round rut. But they have no players to
> > so they'll stay on the treadmill until KG gets mad and is traded.
> > 4 Houston: Improving team, I love francis but Yao needs some help
> > front. Mo Taylor wasn't that good when he was thin and healthy
> > now he and Rice are just rotting with big contracts.
> > 5 Utah: you would think they would try to help out their old
> > for a last run but the supporting cast gets worse and worse.
> > and Malone deserve a little better than cheaney and harpring.
> > 6 Memphis: not a good team, lets see what jerry west does next
> > 7 Denver: I liked the trades (especially the Dallas trade) but it
> > hinges on how well they draft. Either way they'll really suck
> > year (worst team in the league except maybe cavs)
> > Pacific
> > 1 Kings: they'll be hyped up and beat the lakers out of the gate
> > win the homecourt. they are deep too.
> > 2 Lakers: Shaq hurt and regular season malaise will slow them
> > they could use another good player as the supporting cast is
> > but they are still the best if shaq can walk.
> > 3 Portland: They still have the good core but pippen is not what
> > was and the contracts to Damon and Derek Anderson really weigh
> > team down. They could surprise but they can't beat the lakers.
> > 4 Clippers: Andre Miller will help and this team will probably
> > the playoffs. Not that Sterling will pay any of these guys but
> > does you have to pay Miller and Brand and not worry about the
> > 5 Suns: they got killed for the kidd trade but they were not
> > the second round with kidd so they may as well have taken a
> > the penny trade was much worse. if they get a front court
> > marion, stoudamire, and tsakilidis they could sneak into the
> > playoffs. No matter what they should give stoudamire playing
> > this year.
> > 6 Sonics: they don't defend that well and the payton contract
> > situation will hurt the team. they have playoff upside but the
> > downside seems more likely to me.
> > 7 Warriors: not sure what they are doing. Jamison contract is
> > no point guard, but Richardson will be good. They need to trade a
> > bunch of these mediocre forwards and centers and try to get some
> > value.
> > Playoffs
> > conference finals
> > LA beats Sacramento
> > Jersey over New Orleans
> > LA sweeps Jersey
> > MVP: Kobe
> > Rookie of the year: Carron Butler
- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
> Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?From the article on my website:
The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
Defensive Stops =
+ STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)
Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling