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Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • John Hollinger
    Thanks for the promo Dean. I d have been disappointed if you agreed with me on everything, that ain t what this list is about. 8^) ... certainly ... together
    Message 1 of 31 , Oct 6, 2002
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      Thanks for the promo Dean. I'd have been disappointed if you agreed
      with me on everything, that ain't what this list is about. 8^)


      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...> wrote:
      > Just an FYI. John Hollinger has his picks on CNNSi.com. I
      certainly
      > don't agree with him on everything but I haven't had the time to
      > think about things as he has.
      >
      > NJ is going to be good. Their young guys have the room to make
      > mistakes and get better. Mutombo helps an already solid D.
      >
      > Philly is going to struggle. Larry Brown has held that team
      together
      > for a few years. Not sure how he's going to do it now. He has a
      > chance, but I don't see how they get much better than last year.
      > More likely out of the playoffs.
      >
      > Boston -- who knows? Pierce is good, but the pieces don't fit.
      >
      > Washington -- all depends on whether MJ plays. Like last year
      there
      > is a good chance of him getting hurt. Several of us picked that
      one
      > last year.
      >
      > Dallas -- Nowitzki is carrying that team. If Nelson recognizes
      that
      > and starts building the D around him, they have an outstanding
      chance
      > of winning the title. But Nellie usually goes for the show.
      >
      > Sacramento -- Y'know, if Webber is around and healthy (mentally and
      > physically) for the playoffs, they should have the refs feeling
      > guilty about last year and can beat the Lakers. But if Webber gets
      > dragged through court, the team could disappoint. There are some
      > solid indications that they will drop a few more games this year.
      >
      > LA -- Good reason to shorten the season and get to the playoffs.
      > They don't care enough to do anything until the playoffs. It could
      > hurt them this year, though.
      >
      > Portland -- Sabonis being back probably helps. He was a huge
      > advantage to them before, but I don't know about his health and he
      > was declining. Stoudamire is getting replaced by guys who aren't
      > much better or worse. Someone just needs to tell Sheed to Play
      > Ball! He ain't great, but he's good enough to do more than he does.
      >
      > Phoenix -- Purely a gut thing, having seen both Jacobsen and
      > Stoudemire this offseason, but I think this team is going to
      > surprise. Both guys played well in summer leagues, as did Joe
      > Johnson. Marbury can't play that poorly again. The big Q is the
      > coach. I think the Suns keep regressing in coaches. Ainge was
      > good. Skiles was pretty good. And Johnson didn't show much.
      >
      > Orlando -- I really don't know.
      >
      > NY -- Could be headed for 15 win season.
      >
      > Toronto -- Olajuwon is mostly washed up, but I'd say they need him
      > for the D. Mo-Pete should have a very good year. Without
      Olajuwon,
      > I don't think this team makes the playoffs. With him, they could
      be
      > middle of the road playoff team.
      >
      > Detroit -- The Stack trade changes the chemistry of the team quite
      a
      > bit, maybe for the better. They were almost definitely going to
      > decline this coming season if they stood pat. Now, I give them
      > better odds of improving and at least staying in the 40's for wins.
      >
      > Miami -- Riley will find a way to win. They might even finish 2nd
      > behind NJ. Riley has a bunch of bruisers in his camp right now who
      > will dominate the boards. He will find a way to bring out the best
      > in Jones and Butler. They may be the ugliest 50 win team ever.
      >
      > Indiana -- I dunno. If Reggie has a year left in him, that helps.
      > I'm not sure if he does. O'Neal is overrated as a scorer. I'm not
      > sure who does score on this team. It's going to take a lot of
      > massaging to make this a good team, but it is possible. Brad
      Miller
      > has been good for a while, but doesn't get the touches. Al
      > Harrington has an upward curve, but not sure where it's going to
      end
      > up this year. If O'Neal has another notch to his game, that would
      > make this team very good. I just really don't know if he has it.
      >
      > Bucks -- My understanding is that Karl feels more comfortable with
      > what he's got now. It should be an easier team to coach. He lost
      > some talent, but I think it will be easier to get his guys to focus
      > now on what's important. Really a hunch, but also based on the
      fact
      > that they were one of the east's best teams until March. One bad
      > slide killed them.
      >
      > Warriors -- Jiri Welsch can play. He'll turn the ball over a lot
      as
      > a rook. I've heard, though, that the new coaching regime will give
      > them a pretty good shot. Almost guaranteed this team will win 29+
      > games, which is a definite improvement.
      >
      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...> wrote:
      > > here are my predictions shooting from the hip:
      > >
      > > Atlantic
      > > 1 Nets: Trade was a wash but Jefferson and Kenyon may break out
      so
      > > they could improve on last year.
      > >
      > > 2 Sixers: Should bounce back (VHorn will help like Kukoc did in
      99)
      > > but I think that they will never be back to 00-01 form for some
      > reason
      > >
      > > 3 Magic: GHill should be back but they still have no inside game
      so
      > > unless MCgrady becomes Jordan they are a first round playoff exit
      > >
      > > 4 Celts: Baker trade hurts with the cap, doesn't help in talent;
      I
      > > actually didn't thinkt they were that good last year
      > >
      > > 5 Wizards: they'll be on the fringes of contention and could
      catch
      > > someone if MJ stays healthy (which is very unlikely)
      > >
      > > 6 NY: Mcdyess trade was good but they really need to tear down
      and
      > > start over--this team is still fundamentally flawed (trade spree
      > and
      > > houston while (if?) it is still possible)
      > >
      > > 7 Miami: w/out even a sick Zo this team won't be able to score or
      > > defend. I like Butler but like their rivals in NY, they need to
      > get
      > > rid of the big contracts.
      > >
      > > Central
      > > 1 Toronto: I don't love this team or anything but this seems like
      > one
      > > of those years that expectations are low and when that happens
      > Lenny
      > > Wilkens always gets his guys to play well.
      > >
      > > 2 Hornets: They, along with NJ and Philly, are the best in the
      > > conference. But when I watch them play I always find them more
      > > beatable then they should be on paper. could use a real 2-guard.
      > >
      > > 3 Pacers: I like their team, it is balanced. everyone hates
      isaiah
      > > but the Rose trade was good and this team should be good.
      > >
      > > 4 Pistons: Oy was the Stack trade ugly. They can't score but
      they
      > > defend and that makes me think they could maybe sneak into the
      > > playoffs. Billups signing seemed silly to me.
      > >
      > > 5 Bucks: I never liked this team when it went deep in the
      playoffs
      > > and I still don't like it. Karl seems like he is mentally gone
      > like
      > > he was in the end in seattle and this combined with their crappy
      D
      > > will make this a crappy season.
      > >
      > > 6 Atlanta: talent for talent the Big Dog trade was good but he
      > really
      > > duplicates strength. they need a real backcourt (i would trade
      > terry)
      > >
      > > 7 Bulls: They should be better than they have been since MJ.
      > Still,
      > > I would dump Rose (if possible) he won't be a real factor on the
      > next
      > > good bull team.
      > >
      > > 8 Cavs: ugly. they need a good draft to get out of this
      tailspin.
      > > Though I wonder if they could trade Zydrunas to a contender. If
      > > healthy, he could really help a good team and if he gets hurt
      > > insurance might cover it.
      > >
      > > Midwest
      > >
      > > 1 Spurs: Duncan is enough to win the division but the supporting
      > cast
      > > is not good. Ginoblli will help but that ain't enough to beat LA.
      > >
      > > 2 Mavs: I always hate these no D teams. Dirk is great but
      Lafrentz
      > > is no real center particularly if you have no other real
      defensive
      > > frontcourt. they'll win in the regular season but they are
      > > overrated. I actually think portland would beat 'em in a 7game
      > series
      > >
      > > 3 T'wolves: took a step back. They gotta do something drastic to
      > > breakout of this first round rut. But they have no players to
      trade
      > > so they'll stay on the treadmill until KG gets mad and is traded.
      > >
      > > 4 Houston: Improving team, I love francis but Yao needs some help
      > up
      > > front. Mo Taylor wasn't that good when he was thin and healthy
      so
      > > now he and Rice are just rotting with big contracts.
      > >
      > > 5 Utah: you would think they would try to help out their old
      stars
      > > for a last run but the supporting cast gets worse and worse.
      Stock
      > > and Malone deserve a little better than cheaney and harpring.
      > >
      > > 6 Memphis: not a good team, lets see what jerry west does next
      > summer.
      > >
      > > 7 Denver: I liked the trades (especially the Dallas trade) but it
      > all
      > > hinges on how well they draft. Either way they'll really suck
      this
      > > year (worst team in the league except maybe cavs)
      > >
      > > Pacific
      > > 1 Kings: they'll be hyped up and beat the lakers out of the gate
      to
      > > win the homecourt. they are deep too.
      > >
      > > 2 Lakers: Shaq hurt and regular season malaise will slow them
      > down.
      > > they could use another good player as the supporting cast is
      > eroding
      > > but they are still the best if shaq can walk.
      > >
      > > 3 Portland: They still have the good core but pippen is not what
      he
      > > was and the contracts to Damon and Derek Anderson really weigh
      this
      > > team down. They could surprise but they can't beat the lakers.
      > >
      > > 4 Clippers: Andre Miller will help and this team will probably
      make
      > > the playoffs. Not that Sterling will pay any of these guys but
      if
      > he
      > > does you have to pay Miller and Brand and not worry about the
      > others.
      > >
      > > 5 Suns: they got killed for the kidd trade but they were not
      going
      > to
      > > the second round with kidd so they may as well have taken a
      > chance.
      > > the penny trade was much worse. if they get a front court
      between
      > > marion, stoudamire, and tsakilidis they could sneak into the
      > > playoffs. No matter what they should give stoudamire playing
      time
      > > this year.
      > >
      > > 6 Sonics: they don't defend that well and the payton contract
      > > situation will hurt the team. they have playoff upside but the
      > > downside seems more likely to me.
      > >
      > > 7 Warriors: not sure what they are doing. Jamison contract is
      > awful,
      > > no point guard, but Richardson will be good. They need to trade a
      > > bunch of these mediocre forwards and centers and try to get some
      > real
      > > value.
      > >
      > > Playoffs
      > > conference finals
      > >
      > > LA beats Sacramento
      > > Jersey over New Orleans
      > >
      > > LA sweeps Jersey
      > >
      > > MVP: Kobe
      > > Rookie of the year: Carron Butler
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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