Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?
- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
> On Fri, 27 Sep 2002, Mike G wrote:2
> > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
> > ....
> > > 4. Boston
> > > Three great forwards, MikeG? You must be a lot higher on Eric
> > > Williams than I am. Wait? Vin Baker?
> > How embarrassing. I was thinking it was McDyess to the Celts.
> > In any case, 3 guys who are accustomed to big minutes are sharing
> > forward slots in Boston. I guess Pierce will play some guard.lot of the 2. Also, I am hearing rumors that Walker will play a good
> I think it's a foregone conclusion that Pierce will be playing a
deal of 1, which could turn into a Scottie Pippen/Grant Hill
situation but could also be a total disaster.
>Celtics are trying to figure this out themselves. They aren't sure
how they're going to cover the quick PGs out there. Walker and
Pierce can run the guard rotation offensively, but would be
challenged guarding opposing quick guys.
> >They both work off the block on the offensive end. Hard to have 2
> > > Central
> > > 1. New Orleans
> > > ... Magloire might be the best center in the East and
> > > Campbell is a solid player there as well.
> > Why can't these 2 play together? They are 2 of the team's best
> > players.
guys down there. Too easy to double team both.
> > > 5. SeattleLet's just say that the Sonics are working on some things (given that
I have been helping them with stuff for a couple seasons, I don't
want to say much). With the tougher Western conference, an aging
Payton (and Barry), and some unproven young guys, they know they have
their work cut out for themselves.
- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
> Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?From the article on my website:
The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
Defensive Stops =
+ STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)
Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling