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Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... 2 ... lot of the 2. Also, I am hearing rumors that Walker will play a good deal of 1, which could turn into a Scottie Pippen/Grant Hill situation but could
    Message 1 of 31 , Sep 27, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
      > On Fri, 27 Sep 2002, Mike G wrote:
      >
      > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
      > > ....
      > > > 4. Boston
      > > > Three great forwards, MikeG? You must be a lot higher on Eric
      > > > Williams than I am. Wait? Vin Baker?
      > >
      > > How embarrassing. I was thinking it was McDyess to the Celts.
      > >
      > > In any case, 3 guys who are accustomed to big minutes are sharing
      2
      > > forward slots in Boston. I guess Pierce will play some guard.
      >
      > I think it's a foregone conclusion that Pierce will be playing a
      lot of the 2. Also, I am hearing rumors that Walker will play a good
      deal of 1, which could turn into a Scottie Pippen/Grant Hill
      situation but could also be a total disaster.
      >

      Celtics are trying to figure this out themselves. They aren't sure
      how they're going to cover the quick PGs out there. Walker and
      Pierce can run the guard rotation offensively, but would be
      challenged guarding opposing quick guys.

      > >
      > >
      > > > Central
      > > > 1. New Orleans
      > > > ... Magloire might be the best center in the East and
      > > > Campbell is a solid player there as well.
      > >
      > > Why can't these 2 play together? They are 2 of the team's best
      > > players.
      > >
      > >

      They both work off the block on the offensive end. Hard to have 2
      guys down there. Too easy to double team both.

      > > > 5. Seattle

      Let's just say that the Sonics are working on some things (given that
      I have been helping them with stuff for a couple seasons, I don't
      want to say much). With the tougher Western conference, an aging
      Payton (and Barry), and some unproven young guys, they know they have
      their work cut out for themselves.

      DeanO
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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