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2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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  • Mike G
    How about those Celtics? Now they have 3 great forwards and nothing else. Is Antoine on the trading block? Or is he moving to PG? The Hornets have 2 of the
    Message 1 of 31 , Sep 25, 2002
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      How about those Celtics? Now they have 3 great forwards and nothing
      else. Is Antoine on the trading block? Or is he moving to PG?

      The Hornets have 2 of the better centers in the league, who split 48
      minutes last year. Meanwhile, they have no backup guards, and Wesley
      struggled mightily last year.

      (I haven't even followed the trades or the rumors hardly at all, so
      these speculations are mostly just from scanning the rosters of last
      year, and seeing who's hot and who's not.)

      Atlanta: If Ratliff comes back, they seem to be 1 good guard away
      from contention.

      Chicago: There leader in minutes last year was Trent Hassell.
      Still, Fizer was coming on, Chandler and Curry look OK. Rose can be
      a star, but he and Best aren't the epitome of stability to compliment
      the youngsters

      Cleveland: I can't think about this team.

      Dallas: Can Nowitzki and Nash yet improve? Not sure LaFrentz is the
      guy they need in the middle. Will they continue to run 2 PGs?

      oops, gotta go.
    • Dean Oliver
      ... From the article on my website: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is
      Message 31 of 31 , Oct 14, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
        > Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

        From the article on my website:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

        The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

        Defensive Stops =
        Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
        + STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

        Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
        how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
        like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
        course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
        forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
        other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
        weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
        rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
        a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
        NBA level.

        The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
        many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
        our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
        some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
        but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
        again. Grr.

        DeanO
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