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Re: Cha at Mil, 5/20

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... games ... felt ... be ... even ... Highly likely that increasing the clock would mean lower scoring games. Likely that reducing the clock would increase
    Message 1 of 18 , May 28, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Andy Finkelstein <andyf@b...> wrote:
      > If you push the shot clock to 30 seconds, I would think that the
      games
      > would be even *lower* scoring than they are now! I have always
      felt
      > that if the league wants to increase scoring, the shot clock should
      be
      > reduced to *20* seconds. If nothing else, I think it should force
      even
      > *more* shots per game, and therefore more chances for points to be
      > scored.
      >

      Highly likely that increasing the clock would mean lower scoring
      games. Likely that reducing the clock would increase point totals
      without significant impact on efficiency.

      > Also, could someone explain to me how the "8 seconds to cross the
      > backcourt line instead of 10" will increase scoring? Personally, I
      don't
      > think there should be *any* limit... I mean, if there's a shot
      clock to
      > control your possession, who cares *how* long it take you to cross
      > halfcourt, as long as you get your shot off in time?
      >

      Here is why it _may_ help. By decreasing that time, you tempt
      defenses to actually pull out a full-court press, which causes either
      quick turnovers or quick scores on the other end. It's not clear
      whether 8 seconds is enough to make a difference, esp. since common
      wisdom is that you cannot press NBA point guards. I personally think
      that this is going to make almost no difference next year. It may
      have a difference in a couple years.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
    • Dean Oliver
      ... Ed s points are very good here. I d been thinking about it myself. One thing I would add is that the Laker defense was the weakspot during the regular
      Message 2 of 18 , May 28, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Ed Weiland <weiland1029@y...> wrote:
        >
        >
        > The Lakers didn't have a historic regular season in
        > either W-L record or point differential. But they
        > might be on their way to an unprecedented 15-0 sweep

        Ed's points are very good here. I'd been thinking about it myself.
        One thing I would add is that the Laker defense was the weakspot
        during the regular season. It is also what has improved
        significantly in the playoffs. This points to 2 things

        1. It emphasizes that defense is what takes effort and that the
        Lakers were a bit lazy during the season, knowing that they could
        turn it on in the postseason.

        2. The best offensive teams are probably better off in the playoffs.
        I did a quick study of this (using certain assumptions about whether
        teams slack off in the regular season) and posted it at

        http://www.tsoft.com/~deano/articles/aa082197.htm

        "They Say Defense Wins Championships"...

        For the record, I had the Lakers and the Bucks with the best offense
        this year.

        Dean Oliver
        Journal of Basketball Studies

        > through the playoffs. I know there's a lot of
        > basketball to be played yet, but whether it's the
        > Bucks or the Sixers, the East opponent will not only
        > be worn down, they'll also be possibly the worst team
        > the Lakers will face during their run. A four game
        > sweep in the finals is not only a possibility, it
        > seems downright likely. Especially if 15-0 (or
        > tree-fo-fo-fo as Moses Malone might put it) is a
        > possibility going in. You know the Lakers are thinking
        > about it now and will be gunning for it.
        >
        > Here are some of the best playoff runs until this
        > season that I found:
        >
        > '61 Celtics 8-2 11.9 point diff
        > '71 Bucks 12-2 14.5
        > '82 Lakers 12-2 6.1
        > '83 Sixers 12-1 6.5
        > '86 Celtics 15-3 10.3
        > '87 Lakers 15-3 11.4
        > '91 Bulls 15-2 11.8
        > '96 Bulls 15-3 10.6
        >
        >
        > The '01 Lakers are 10-0/14.1 so far. I don't ever like
        > to declare any team the best ever, especially a team
        > hasn't even been crowned champions yet and that's not
        > what I'm saying here. I will say that IF the Lakers go
        > on to run the table in the playoffs, you'd at the very
        > least have to call it the most impressive playoff
        > performance ever. Considering it's being done against
        > possibly the best eight team field one conference has
        > ever sent into the playoffs, it's that much more
        > amazing. Kind of a bummer, since I was looking forward
        > to a more exciting playoffs. At least we might get to
        > see history made.
        >
        > Ed Weiland
        >
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      • John Grasso
        For the record the score of the second game was Minneapolis 133 St. Louis 75 - a 58 point margin which at that time was the largest margin of victory in the
        Message 3 of 18 , May 30, 2001
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          For the record the score of the second game was Minneapolis 133 St. Louis
          75 - a 58 point margin which at that time was the largest margin of victory
          in the NBA for any game - playoff or regular season.

          The regular season record was topped in 1960 by the Nats over the Knicks
          162-100. The current record is Cleveland's 148-80 win over Miami in 1990.
          But the Lakers still own the playoff record.


          > The largest playoff margin of victory was not by anyone listed
          > below. The 1956 Lakers outscored their opponents by 18.7 ppg. They
          > lost to the Hawks 116-115, won 145-73, and lost again by 116-115.
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