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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: The turnover prone guys

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  • John W. Craven
    ... Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive efficiency rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting percentages may have fallen in part
    Message 1 of 18 , Aug 20, 2002
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      On Tue, 20 Aug 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
      > Definitely turnovers have been coming down, just as they've been
      > coming down in the WNBA. Turnovers are much more plentiful in less
      > mature leagues. I've always believed that the early high rates of
      > turnovers were real. They are still coming down now as the Mavs set
      > a record last year for fewest turnovers. And Nowtizki had about the
      > lowest turnover rate I've seen.


      Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive efficiency rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting percentages may have fallen in part because teams are choosing less risky (in terms of committing TOs) yet less successful (in terms of made FGs per FGs attempted) options is one that I hadn't considered until this thread.

      >
      > > Look at how many former Jordan teammates are near the top of the
      > > list. Two factors at work here: They didn't have to be creative
      > > with the ball; and Jordan didn't tolerate turnovers (among other
      > > things).
      > >
      >
      > I definitely noticed this. That was one of Jordan's biggest effects
      > on teammates. I think a lot of great scorers have this effect and
      > have been studying it.
      >
      >
      > > >
      > > > I'm actually surprised that Kerry Kittles doesn't make your
      > list.
      > > He is
      > > > one I noted from his rookie year as surprisingly carefull with
      > the
      > > ball.
      > >
      > > Actually, this study is a year old, and Kittles only this year
      > joined
      > > the '10,000 club', from which the sample is taken.
      > >
      >
      > I remember Kittles entering the league and not showing the very
      > typical first year effect of high turnovers. Almost every future
      > good player shows the effect. In fact, I discredit players who don't
      > have high turnover rates their first year because they aren't testing
      > their abilities enough, playing it too cautious. They end up role
      > players, a bit like Kittles is.
      >
      > > Having looked back at the careers of some of these guys, their
      > > turnover rates are Highly incomplete. Cazzie Russell, for example,
      > > has only his last year to go by.
      > >
      >
      > That is the big reason I don't like evaluating players from before
      > individual turnovers were recorded. They make a huge difference and
      > are just not easily speculated on.
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
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      >
      >
      >
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      >
      >
      >
    • HoopStudies
      ... less ... of ... set ... the ... rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting percentages may have fallen in part because teams are choosing less
      Message 2 of 18 , Aug 21, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
        > On Tue, 20 Aug 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
        > > Definitely turnovers have been coming down, just as they've been
        > > coming down in the WNBA. Turnovers are much more plentiful in
        less
        > > mature leagues. I've always believed that the early high rates
        of
        > > turnovers were real. They are still coming down now as the Mavs
        set
        > > a record last year for fewest turnovers. And Nowtizki had about
        the
        > > lowest turnover rate I've seen.
        >
        >
        > Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive efficiency
        rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting percentages may
        have fallen in part because teams are choosing less risky (in terms
        of committing TOs) yet less successful (in terms of made FGs per FGs
        attempted) options is one that I hadn't considered until this thread.

        It went up sharply in the '70's, steady in the '80's, and down in
        the '90's. It's at least flat or rising now.

        Season AvgRtg
        1974 99
        1975 99
        1976 99
        1977 101
        1978 102
        1979 105
        1980 106
        1981 107
        1982 107
        1983 105
        1984 108
        1985 108
        1986 107
        1987 108
        1988 108
        1989 108
        1990 108
        1991 108
        1992 108
        1993 108
        1994 106
        1995 108
        1996 108
        1997 107
        1998 105
        1999 102
        2000 104
        2001 104
        2002 105
      • alleyoop2
        That s what my #s show as well - offensive efficiency rose last year after a four-year period that looks like a bottoming out, at least right now, with the
        Message 3 of 18 , Aug 21, 2002
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          That's what my #s show as well - offensive efficiency rose last year
          after a four-year period that looks like a bottoming out, at least
          right now, with the lockout year being the worst.

          Interesting discussion on turnovers by the way, and I couldn't agree
          more with whoever was ripping on Muggsy Bogues. Assist-Turnover ratio
          is about the most idiotic statistic I've ever seen, and has almost no
          correlation with any kind of skill whatsoever.

          Interestingly, guys who make too *few* turnovers are interesting
          bunch - most are poor players or at best role players. Seems like
          below a certain level, a guy can only get a rate that low if all he
          does is shoot wide-open jump shots. The lowest rate in the league by
          my calcs belonged to Cal Bowdler, who will be coming soon to a D-
          League team near you. A couple good players show up in the top ten
          (Terell Brandon, Michael Finley) but there's also a whole lot of Fred
          Hoibergs and Pat Garritys.



          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
          > > On Tue, 20 Aug 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
          > > > Definitely turnovers have been coming down, just as they've
          been
          > > > coming down in the WNBA. Turnovers are much more plentiful in
          > less
          > > > mature leagues. I've always believed that the early high rates
          > of
          > > > turnovers were real. They are still coming down now as the
          Mavs
          > set
          > > > a record last year for fewest turnovers. And Nowtizki had
          about
          > the
          > > > lowest turnover rate I've seen.
          > >
          > >
          > > Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive efficiency
          > rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting percentages
          may
          > have fallen in part because teams are choosing less risky (in terms
          > of committing TOs) yet less successful (in terms of made FGs per
          FGs
          > attempted) options is one that I hadn't considered until this
          thread.
          >
          > It went up sharply in the '70's, steady in the '80's, and down in
          > the '90's. It's at least flat or rising now.
          >
          > Season AvgRtg
          > 1974 99
          > 1975 99
          > 1976 99
          > 1977 101
          > 1978 102
          > 1979 105
          > 1980 106
          > 1981 107
          > 1982 107
          > 1983 105
          > 1984 108
          > 1985 108
          > 1986 107
          > 1987 108
          > 1988 108
          > 1989 108
          > 1990 108
          > 1991 108
          > 1992 108
          > 1993 108
          > 1994 106
          > 1995 108
          > 1996 108
          > 1997 107
          > 1998 105
          > 1999 102
          > 2000 104
          > 2001 104
          > 2002 105
        • HoopStudies
          ... year ... agree ... ratio ... no ... Obviously assists are good and turnovers are bad, but the ratio is just one of so many indicators that the value of the
          Message 4 of 18 , Aug 21, 2002
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            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
            > That's what my #s show as well - offensive efficiency rose last
            year
            > after a four-year period that looks like a bottoming out, at least
            > right now, with the lockout year being the worst.
            >
            > Interesting discussion on turnovers by the way, and I couldn't
            agree
            > more with whoever was ripping on Muggsy Bogues. Assist-Turnover
            ratio
            > is about the most idiotic statistic I've ever seen, and has almost
            no
            > correlation with any kind of skill whatsoever.
            >

            Obviously assists are good and turnovers are bad, but the ratio is
            just one of so many indicators that the value of the two numbers gets
            lost. I don't think anyone seriously ranks players by the ratio, but
            it does tell you something -- which is the point. Kind of like GIDP
            in baseball doesn't rank players, but it tells you something if used
            properly.

            Basketball is so multidimensional -- with so many things going on --
            that simple stats often don't tell the true story. They tell part of
            the story. Assist-to-turnover ratio is a fine example. Its "lack of
            correlation" with skill doesn't mean that it says nothing at all
            about quality, it just means that it gets dwarfed by other things in
            importance. I would actually say that coaching quality is important,
            but its importance gets dwarfed by the talent that the coach has. We
            try to give awards to coaches, but they are often pretty much
            guesswork because the tools for evaluating coaches aren't very
            refined to overcome the dwarfing impact of talent.

            DeanO

            >
            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
            > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...> wrote:
            > > > On Tue, 20 Aug 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
            > > > > Definitely turnovers have been coming down, just as they've
            > been
            > > > > coming down in the WNBA. Turnovers are much more plentiful
            in
            > > less
            > > > > mature leagues. I've always believed that the early high
            rates
            > > of
            > > > > turnovers were real. They are still coming down now as the
            > Mavs
            > > set
            > > > > a record last year for fewest turnovers. And Nowtizki had
            > about
            > > the
            > > > > lowest turnover rate I've seen.
            > > >
            > > >
            > > > Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive efficiency
            > > rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting percentages
            > may
            > > have fallen in part because teams are choosing less risky (in
            terms
            > > of committing TOs) yet less successful (in terms of made FGs per
            > FGs
            > > attempted) options is one that I hadn't considered until this
            > thread.
            > >
            > > It went up sharply in the '70's, steady in the '80's, and down in
            > > the '90's. It's at least flat or rising now.
            > >
            > > Season AvgRtg
            > > 1974 99
            > > 1975 99
            > > 1976 99
            > > 1977 101
            > > 1978 102
            > > 1979 105
            > > 1980 106
            > > 1981 107
            > > 1982 107
            > > 1983 105
            > > 1984 108
            > > 1985 108
            > > 1986 107
            > > 1987 108
            > > 1988 108
            > > 1989 108
            > > 1990 108
            > > 1991 108
            > > 1992 108
            > > 1993 108
            > > 1994 106
            > > 1995 108
            > > 1996 108
            > > 1997 107
            > > 1998 105
            > > 1999 102
            > > 2000 104
            > > 2001 104
            > > 2002 105
          • alleyoop2
            You said, in part says nothing at all about quality, it just means that it gets dwarfed by other things in importance. I disagree: I actually think
            Message 5 of 18 , Aug 22, 2002
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              You said, in part "says nothing at all about quality, it just means
              that it gets dwarfed by other things in importance."

              I disagree: I actually think assist-turnover ratio says nothing at
              all about quality. It is dominated by players who never penetrate
              like Jeff McInnis and Alvin Williams (or the previous example, Muggsy
              Bogues) and as a result this particular stat is at least as much a
              contrarian indicator as it is a positive one.



              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
              > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
              > > That's what my #s show as well - offensive efficiency rose last
              > year
              > > after a four-year period that looks like a bottoming out, at
              least
              > > right now, with the lockout year being the worst.
              > >
              > > Interesting discussion on turnovers by the way, and I couldn't
              > agree
              > > more with whoever was ripping on Muggsy Bogues. Assist-Turnover
              > ratio
              > > is about the most idiotic statistic I've ever seen, and has
              almost
              > no
              > > correlation with any kind of skill whatsoever.
              > >
              >
              > Obviously assists are good and turnovers are bad, but the ratio is
              > just one of so many indicators that the value of the two numbers
              gets
              > lost. I don't think anyone seriously ranks players by the ratio,
              but
              > it does tell you something -- which is the point. Kind of like
              GIDP
              > in baseball doesn't rank players, but it tells you something if
              used
              > properly.
              >
              > Basketball is so multidimensional -- with so many things going on --

              > that simple stats often don't tell the true story. They tell part
              of
              > the story. Assist-to-turnover ratio is a fine example. Its "lack
              of
              > correlation" with skill doesn't mean that it says nothing at all
              > about quality, it just means that it gets dwarfed by other things
              in
              > importance. I would actually say that coaching quality is
              important,
              > but its importance gets dwarfed by the talent that the coach has.
              We
              > try to give awards to coaches, but they are often pretty much
              > guesswork because the tools for evaluating coaches aren't very
              > refined to overcome the dwarfing impact of talent.
              >
              > DeanO
              >
              > >
              > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
              > > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...>
              wrote:
              > > > > On Tue, 20 Aug 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
              > > > > > Definitely turnovers have been coming down, just as they've
              > > been
              > > > > > coming down in the WNBA. Turnovers are much more plentiful
              > in
              > > > less
              > > > > > mature leagues. I've always believed that the early high
              > rates
              > > > of
              > > > > > turnovers were real. They are still coming down now as the
              > > Mavs
              > > > set
              > > > > > a record last year for fewest turnovers. And Nowtizki had
              > > about
              > > > the
              > > > > > lowest turnover rate I've seen.
              > > > >
              > > > >
              > > > > Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive
              efficiency
              > > > rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting
              percentages
              > > may
              > > > have fallen in part because teams are choosing less risky (in
              > terms
              > > > of committing TOs) yet less successful (in terms of made FGs
              per
              > > FGs
              > > > attempted) options is one that I hadn't considered until this
              > > thread.
              > > >
              > > > It went up sharply in the '70's, steady in the '80's, and down
              in
              > > > the '90's. It's at least flat or rising now.
              > > >
              > > > Season AvgRtg
              > > > 1974 99
              > > > 1975 99
              > > > 1976 99
              > > > 1977 101
              > > > 1978 102
              > > > 1979 105
              > > > 1980 106
              > > > 1981 107
              > > > 1982 107
              > > > 1983 105
              > > > 1984 108
              > > > 1985 108
              > > > 1986 107
              > > > 1987 108
              > > > 1988 108
              > > > 1989 108
              > > > 1990 108
              > > > 1991 108
              > > > 1992 108
              > > > 1993 108
              > > > 1994 106
              > > > 1995 108
              > > > 1996 108
              > > > 1997 107
              > > > 1998 105
              > > > 1999 102
              > > > 2000 104
              > > > 2001 104
              > > > 2002 105
            • harlanzo
              So how dou you meaningfully interpret turnovers? I agree that context is important (ie Rodman s low turnovers do not indicate his ballhandling ability). Can
              Message 6 of 18 , Aug 23, 2002
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                So how dou you meaningfully interpret turnovers? I agree that
                context is important (ie Rodman's low turnovers do not indicate his
                ballhandling ability). Can you estimate touches per game and then
                divide turnovers into this number? That would theoretically balance
                out the problems you mention. (of course determining what is a real
                touch and tos in the half court v. fast break might make differnece
                too.)

                --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
                > You said, in part "says nothing at all about quality, it just means
                > that it gets dwarfed by other things in importance."
                >
                > I disagree: I actually think assist-turnover ratio says nothing at
                > all about quality. It is dominated by players who never penetrate
                > like Jeff McInnis and Alvin Williams (or the previous example,
                Muggsy
                > Bogues) and as a result this particular stat is at least as much a
                > contrarian indicator as it is a positive one.
                >
                >
                >
                > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
                > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
                > > > That's what my #s show as well - offensive efficiency rose last
                > > year
                > > > after a four-year period that looks like a bottoming out, at
                > least
                > > > right now, with the lockout year being the worst.
                > > >
                > > > Interesting discussion on turnovers by the way, and I couldn't
                > > agree
                > > > more with whoever was ripping on Muggsy Bogues. Assist-Turnover
                > > ratio
                > > > is about the most idiotic statistic I've ever seen, and has
                > almost
                > > no
                > > > correlation with any kind of skill whatsoever.
                > > >
                > >
                > > Obviously assists are good and turnovers are bad, but the ratio
                is
                > > just one of so many indicators that the value of the two numbers
                > gets
                > > lost. I don't think anyone seriously ranks players by the ratio,
                > but
                > > it does tell you something -- which is the point. Kind of like
                > GIDP
                > > in baseball doesn't rank players, but it tells you something if
                > used
                > > properly.
                > >
                > > Basketball is so multidimensional -- with so many things going
                on --
                >
                > > that simple stats often don't tell the true story. They tell
                part
                > of
                > > the story. Assist-to-turnover ratio is a fine example.
                Its "lack
                > of
                > > correlation" with skill doesn't mean that it says nothing at all
                > > about quality, it just means that it gets dwarfed by other things
                > in
                > > importance. I would actually say that coaching quality is
                > important,
                > > but its importance gets dwarfed by the talent that the coach
                has.
                > We
                > > try to give awards to coaches, but they are often pretty much
                > > guesswork because the tools for evaluating coaches aren't very
                > > refined to overcome the dwarfing impact of talent.
                > >
                > > DeanO
                > >
                > > >
                > > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
                > > > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...>
                > wrote:
                > > > > > On Tue, 20 Aug 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
                > > > > > > Definitely turnovers have been coming down, just as
                they've
                > > > been
                > > > > > > coming down in the WNBA. Turnovers are much more
                plentiful
                > > in
                > > > > less
                > > > > > > mature leagues. I've always believed that the early high
                > > rates
                > > > > of
                > > > > > > turnovers were real. They are still coming down now as
                the
                > > > Mavs
                > > > > set
                > > > > > > a record last year for fewest turnovers. And Nowtizki
                had
                > > > about
                > > > > the
                > > > > > > lowest turnover rate I've seen.
                > > > > >
                > > > > >
                > > > > > Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive
                > efficiency
                > > > > rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting
                > percentages
                > > > may
                > > > > have fallen in part because teams are choosing less risky (in
                > > terms
                > > > > of committing TOs) yet less successful (in terms of made FGs
                > per
                > > > FGs
                > > > > attempted) options is one that I hadn't considered until this
                > > > thread.
                > > > >
                > > > > It went up sharply in the '70's, steady in the '80's, and
                down
                > in
                > > > > the '90's. It's at least flat or rising now.
                > > > >
                > > > > Season AvgRtg
                > > > > 1974 99
                > > > > 1975 99
                > > > > 1976 99
                > > > > 1977 101
                > > > > 1978 102
                > > > > 1979 105
                > > > > 1980 106
                > > > > 1981 107
                > > > > 1982 107
                > > > > 1983 105
                > > > > 1984 108
                > > > > 1985 108
                > > > > 1986 107
                > > > > 1987 108
                > > > > 1988 108
                > > > > 1989 108
                > > > > 1990 108
                > > > > 1991 108
                > > > > 1992 108
                > > > > 1993 108
                > > > > 1994 106
                > > > > 1995 108
                > > > > 1996 108
                > > > > 1997 107
                > > > > 1998 105
                > > > > 1999 102
                > > > > 2000 104
                > > > > 2001 104
                > > > > 2002 105
              • HoopStudies
                ... Muggsy ... Quick comment: There was a study going around when I was in high school showing that studying more hours was not correlated with good grades in
                Message 7 of 18 , Aug 23, 2002
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                  --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
                  > You said, in part "says nothing at all about quality, it just means
                  > that it gets dwarfed by other things in importance."
                  >
                  > I disagree: I actually think assist-turnover ratio says nothing at
                  > all about quality. It is dominated by players who never penetrate
                  > like Jeff McInnis and Alvin Williams (or the previous example,
                  Muggsy
                  > Bogues) and as a result this particular stat is at least as much a
                  > contrarian indicator as it is a positive one.
                  >

                  Quick comment:

                  There was a study going around when I was in high school showing that
                  studying more hours was not correlated with good grades in classes
                  (tainted by the really smart kids not having to study). Does that
                  mean that studying doesn't help? No. It means that there are other
                  factors that are important. It certainly convinced some people not
                  to study. I think they're working at the Piggly Wiggly now.

                  Common sense says a high assist-turnover is a good thing, kinda like
                  studying is a good thing. An extremely high ratio doesn't
                  necessarily make you a good player, as studying infinite hours
                  doesn't necessarily make you a good student.

                  McInnis, Williams, and Bogues are not horrible players. Not stars by
                  any measure, except for assist-turnover ratio. But no one saw them
                  as stars, including their coaches who recognized that the ratio has
                  some value and kept them around to be solid and safe distributors.

                  DeanO


                  >
                  >
                  > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
                  > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
                  > > > That's what my #s show as well - offensive efficiency rose last
                  > > year
                  > > > after a four-year period that looks like a bottoming out, at
                  > least
                  > > > right now, with the lockout year being the worst.
                  > > >
                  > > > Interesting discussion on turnovers by the way, and I couldn't
                  > > agree
                  > > > more with whoever was ripping on Muggsy Bogues. Assist-Turnover
                  > > ratio
                  > > > is about the most idiotic statistic I've ever seen, and has
                  > almost
                  > > no
                  > > > correlation with any kind of skill whatsoever.
                  > > >
                  > >
                  > > Obviously assists are good and turnovers are bad, but the ratio
                  is
                  > > just one of so many indicators that the value of the two numbers
                  > gets
                  > > lost. I don't think anyone seriously ranks players by the ratio,
                  > but
                  > > it does tell you something -- which is the point. Kind of like
                  > GIDP
                  > > in baseball doesn't rank players, but it tells you something if
                  > used
                  > > properly.
                  > >
                  > > Basketball is so multidimensional -- with so many things going
                  on --
                  >
                  > > that simple stats often don't tell the true story. They tell
                  part
                  > of
                  > > the story. Assist-to-turnover ratio is a fine example.
                  Its "lack
                  > of
                  > > correlation" with skill doesn't mean that it says nothing at all
                  > > about quality, it just means that it gets dwarfed by other things
                  > in
                  > > importance. I would actually say that coaching quality is
                  > important,
                  > > but its importance gets dwarfed by the talent that the coach
                  has.
                  > We
                  > > try to give awards to coaches, but they are often pretty much
                  > > guesswork because the tools for evaluating coaches aren't very
                  > > refined to overcome the dwarfing impact of talent.
                  > >
                  > > DeanO
                  > >
                  > > >
                  > > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
                  > > > > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John W. Craven" <john1974@u...>
                  > wrote:
                  > > > > > On Tue, 20 Aug 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
                  > > > > > > Definitely turnovers have been coming down, just as
                  they've
                  > > > been
                  > > > > > > coming down in the WNBA. Turnovers are much more
                  plentiful
                  > > in
                  > > > > less
                  > > > > > > mature leagues. I've always believed that the early high
                  > > rates
                  > > > > of
                  > > > > > > turnovers were real. They are still coming down now as
                  the
                  > > > Mavs
                  > > > > set
                  > > > > > > a record last year for fewest turnovers. And Nowtizki
                  had
                  > > > about
                  > > > > the
                  > > > > > > lowest turnover rate I've seen.
                  > > > > >
                  > > > > >
                  > > > > > Which raises a point: How has your overall offensive
                  > efficiency
                  > > > > rating changed over the years? The idea that shooting
                  > percentages
                  > > > may
                  > > > > have fallen in part because teams are choosing less risky (in
                  > > terms
                  > > > > of committing TOs) yet less successful (in terms of made FGs
                  > per
                  > > > FGs
                  > > > > attempted) options is one that I hadn't considered until this
                  > > > thread.
                  > > > >
                  > > > > It went up sharply in the '70's, steady in the '80's, and
                  down
                  > in
                  > > > > the '90's. It's at least flat or rising now.
                  > > > >
                  > > > > Season AvgRtg
                  > > > > 1974 99
                  > > > > 1975 99
                  > > > > 1976 99
                  > > > > 1977 101
                  > > > > 1978 102
                  > > > > 1979 105
                  > > > > 1980 106
                  > > > > 1981 107
                  > > > > 1982 107
                  > > > > 1983 105
                  > > > > 1984 108
                  > > > > 1985 108
                  > > > > 1986 107
                  > > > > 1987 108
                  > > > > 1988 108
                  > > > > 1989 108
                  > > > > 1990 108
                  > > > > 1991 108
                  > > > > 1992 108
                  > > > > 1993 108
                  > > > > 1994 106
                  > > > > 1995 108
                  > > > > 1996 108
                  > > > > 1997 107
                  > > > > 1998 105
                  > > > > 1999 102
                  > > > > 2000 104
                  > > > > 2001 104
                  > > > > 2002 105
                • bchaikin@aol.com
                  In a message dated 8/23/02 5:09:53 PM Eastern Daylight Time, harlanzo@yahoo.com writes: .....can you estimate touches per game and then divide turnovers into
                  Message 8 of 18 , Aug 23, 2002
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                    In a message dated 8/23/02 5:09:53 PM Eastern Daylight Time, harlanzo@... writes:

                    ".....can you estimate touches per game and then divide turnovers into this number?  that would theoretically balance..."

                    this is what the Historical Statistical Database at the www.apbr.org website lists for all players from 1977-78 to the present and for most of the ABA years - turnovers as a percentage of total touches (its listed as %TO). you'll see players like bogues at only 3% TO, meaning 3 turnovers per 100 ball possessions, which is excellent....

                    AST/TO ratio is essentially a meaningless statistic. people use it because its easy to calculate - just two simple numbers that are already measured by the league, and at some point someone assigned importance to it. %TO tells you how many times per 100 ball possessions a player turns it over - far more meaningful and it puts every player on the same measuring parameter, that of what occurs per ball possession...

                    in 82-83 mike dunleavy (san) had 437 ast and 160 to, for an AST/TO ratio of 2.73. in 95-96 brent price had an AST/TO (416/153) ratio of 2.72. in 90-91 doc rivers had an AST/TO (340/125) ratio of 2.72. but dunleavy's %TO was 6%, brent price's was 5%, and river's was 4%. that means for every 100 ball possessions dunleavy committed 2 more turnovers than rivers did - that's 33% more. so if you are looking for AST/TO ratio to mean something about how well a player handles the ball, you're looking in the wrong place...

                    players such as manute bol, james donaldson, george johnson (the shot blocking center, not the forward), darryl dawkins, and today's jahidi white have all had a season of 14-18 %TO, which is a turnover every 5-7 times the player has the ball on offense, pretty awful. %TOs of between 3-5 are typical of most point guards and represent a turnover only every 20-30 times the player has the ball on offense...

                    bob chaikin
                    bchaikin@...










                    in 89-90 terry catledge had an AST/TO (72/181) ratio of 0.40. in 83-83 darryl dawkins had an AST/TO (114/281) ratio of 0.41. but dawkins' %TO was 17% and catledge's was 8.5%, twice as worse, meaning dawkins commited twice as many turnovers per 100 ball possessions...

                    the bottom line is that an assist occurs only on a pass, and a turnover can occur whenever a player has the ball, while dribbling, passing, or shooting. the two statistical parameters are not mutually dependent, and thus really have no significance when compared just to each other....

                    on the other hand, player ball possessions take into account pretty much everything that can happen when you have the ball - either shoot, pass, get fouled, or turn the ball over. other things like double fouls, offensive fouls, etc. occur rarely and in the big picture can be considered statistically insignificant when trying to determine how often a player turns the ball over, although if measured would surely add to the accuracy of the measurement...

                    bob chaikin
                    bchaikin@...






                  • alleyoop2
                    Pretty much echoes my thoughts -- turnover rates are only meaningful if you include all possessions and not just the ones that end in assists... One other
                    Message 9 of 18 , Aug 23, 2002
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                      Pretty much echoes my thoughts -- turnover rates are only meaningful
                      if you include all possessions and not just the ones that end in
                      assists...

                      One other thing. The Jahidi White stat you mentioned reminds me --
                      turnover ratio is misleading when you see a high turnover rate by a
                      big man who rarely shoots. Examples from last year are Darvin Ham,
                      Charles Oakley, and Alvin Jones. This high TO rate is almost
                      certainly from illegal screen calls rather than being an unusually
                      poor ballhandler.



                      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
                      > In a message dated 8/23/02 5:09:53 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
                      > harlanzo@y... writes:
                      >
                      > ".....can you estimate touches per game and then divide turnovers
                      into this
                      > number? that would theoretically balance..."
                      >
                      > this is what the Historical Statistical Database at the
                      www.apbr.org website
                      > lists for all players from 1977-78 to the present and for most of
                      the ABA
                      > years - turnovers as a percentage of total touches (its listed as %
                      TO).
                      > you'll see players like bogues at only 3% TO, meaning 3 turnovers
                      per 100
                      > ball possessions, which is excellent....
                      >
                      > AST/TO ratio is essentially a meaningless statistic. people use it
                      because
                      > its easy to calculate - just two simple numbers that are already
                      measured by
                      > the league, and at some point someone assigned importance to it. %
                      TO tells
                      > you how many times per 100 ball possessions a player turns it over -
                      far more
                      > meaningful and it puts every player on the same measuring
                      parameter, that of
                      > what occurs per ball possession...
                      >
                      > in 82-83 mike dunleavy (san) had 437 ast and 160 to, for an AST/TO
                      ratio of
                      > 2.73. in 95-96 brent price had an AST/TO (416/153) ratio of 2.72.
                      in 90-91
                      > doc rivers had an AST/TO (340/125) ratio of 2.72. but dunleavy's %
                      TO was 6%,
                      > brent price's was 5%, and river's was 4%. that means for every 100
                      ball
                      > possessions dunleavy committed 2 more turnovers than rivers did -
                      that's 33%
                      > more. so if you are looking for AST/TO ratio to mean something
                      about how well
                      > a player handles the ball, you're looking in the wrong place...
                      >
                      > players such as manute bol, james donaldson, george johnson (the
                      shot
                      > blocking center, not the forward), darryl dawkins, and today's
                      jahidi white
                      > have all had a season of 14-18 %TO, which is a turnover every 5-7
                      times the
                      > player has the ball on offense, pretty awful. %TOs of between 3-5
                      are typical
                      > of most point guards and represent a turnover only every 20-30
                      times the
                      > player has the ball on offense...
                      >
                      > bob chaikin
                      > bchaikin@b...
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > in 89-90 terry catledge had an AST/TO (72/181) ratio of 0.40. in 83-
                      83 darryl
                      > dawkins had an AST/TO (114/281) ratio of 0.41. but dawkins' %TO was
                      17% and
                      > catledge's was 8.5%, twice as worse, meaning dawkins commited twice
                      as many
                      > turnovers per 100 ball possessions...
                      >
                      > the bottom line is that an assist occurs only on a pass, and a
                      turnover can
                      > occur whenever a player has the ball, while dribbling, passing, or
                      shooting.
                      > the two statistical parameters are not mutually dependent, and thus
                      really
                      > have no significance when compared just to each other....
                      >
                      > on the other hand, player ball possessions take into account pretty
                      much
                      > everything that can happen when you have the ball - either shoot,
                      pass, get
                      > fouled, or turn the ball over. other things like double fouls,
                      offensive
                      > fouls, etc. occur rarely and in the big picture can be considered
                      > statistically insignificant when trying to determine how often a
                      player turns
                      > the ball over, although if measured would surely add to the
                      accuracy of the
                      > measurement...
                      >
                      > bob chaikin
                      > bchaikin@b...
                    • Michael K. Tamada
                      ... It s a good point, although how many such offensive fouls do these players commit, compared to their ballhandling turnovers? Is it enough to make a
                      Message 10 of 18 , Aug 23, 2002
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                        On Sat, 24 Aug 2002, alleyoop2 wrote:

                        > Pretty much echoes my thoughts -- turnover rates are only meaningful
                        > if you include all possessions and not just the ones that end in
                        > assists...
                        >
                        > One other thing. The Jahidi White stat you mentioned reminds me --
                        > turnover ratio is misleading when you see a high turnover rate by a
                        > big man who rarely shoots. Examples from last year are Darvin Ham,
                        > Charles Oakley, and Alvin Jones. This high TO rate is almost
                        > certainly from illegal screen calls rather than being an unusually
                        > poor ballhandler.

                        It's a good point, although how many such offensive fouls do these players
                        commit, compared to their ballhandling turnovers? Is it enough to make a
                        difference? Maybe, I don't know.


                        The thing that makes me uncomfortable with the TOs as a percent of all
                        touches is that not all touches are the same. A Dale Ellis type who did
                        only two things with the ball -- shoot it or make a safe backward pass --
                        got a lot of touches but commited very few turnovers. His Asst:TO ratio
                        was probably mediocre but his touches:TO ratio was very good. But that
                        didn't make him a good ballhandler.

                        Meanwhile, the guys who fed him, Nate McMillan and Sedale Threatt and I
                        forget who else on the Sonics, typically scored relatively few points,
                        their touches often resulted in either assists or turnovers. McMillan in
                        particular had a good asst:TO ratio. His touches:TO ratio was probably
                        poor, given how few shots he took so unless you have play-by-play sheets
                        to count his non-shooting touches, the touches:TO stat would probably make
                        him look like a mediocre ballhander. When in fact he was excellent, a
                        creative AND careful ballhandler.

                        For players such as Ellis and McMillan, I suspect that asst:TO gives a
                        better measure of their ballhandling skill than touches:TO.


                        --MKT
                      • bchaikin@aol.com
                        In a message dated 8/24/02 12:28:19 AM Eastern Daylight Time, tamada@oxy.edu ... well then just what is your definition of ...a good ballhandler... ? just
                        Message 11 of 18 , Aug 23, 2002
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                          In a message dated 8/24/02 12:28:19 AM Eastern Daylight Time, tamada@... writes:


                          The thing that makes me uncomfortable with the TOs as a percent of all
                          touches is that not all touches are the same.  A Dale Ellis type who did
                          only two things with the ball -- shoot it or make a safe backward pass --
                          got a lot of touches but commited very few turnovers.  His Asst:TO ratio
                          was probably mediocre but his touches:TO ratio was very good.  But that
                          didn't make him a good ballhandler.

                          Meanwhile, the guys who fed him, Nate McMillan and Sedale Threatt and I
                          forget who else on the Sonics, typically scored relatively few points,
                          their touches often resulted in either assists or turnovers.  McMillan in
                          particular had a good asst:TO ratio.  His touches:TO ratio was probably
                          poor, given how few shots he took so unless you have play-by-play sheets
                          to count his non-shooting touches, the touches:TO stat would probably make
                          him look like a mediocre ballhander.  When in fact he was excellent, a
                          creative AND careful ballhandler.

                          For players such as Ellis and McMillan, I suspect that asst:TO gives a
                          better measure of their ballhandling skill than touches:TO.




                          well then just what is your definition of "...a good ballhandler..."? just what IS a good ball handler? a player who does not turn the ball over often? a good dribbler? a good passer? is your opinion of a good ballhandler someone who can dribble the length of the court against tough pressure without turning the ball over? someone who can dribble between his legs? behind his back?...

                          dale ellis' career %TO is about 6%, excellent for a SG/SF. nate mcmillan's career %TO is about 5%, good for a PG. sedale threatt's is 4-5%, excellent to good for a PG (6% is getting to the poor side for a starting PG)....

                          are all touches the same? in reality of course not - a pass to a wide open cherry picking player for an easy two points is not the same as a player being triple-teamed while stuck in the backcourt. but in general and for statistical purposes, all touches are indeed the same - because with each touch a player is eventually trying to score himself or trying to set up a teammate to score, and he can in general do one of only four things - either shoot, pass, get fouled, or turn it over....

                          over the span of a season dale ellis is guarded by as many good defenders as nate mcmillan is, and as many as sedale threatt is. no player is guarded by poor defenders far more often than any other player - more often yes, but not far more often. sure most of the time michael jordan was guarded by a tougher defender than john paxson or b.j. armstrong was, but with constant switchoffs, 3 on 2s, shooters blowing past their man only to be confronted by a big man, etc, and not every team having a joe dumars, in reality and over the long haul players are guarded by the same type of players. for every game george gervin in his prime was guarded by t.r. dunn or dennis johnson or sidney moncrief, there were games where he was also guarded by lloyd free and darrell griffith and kevin grevey and pete maravich...

                          so in essence a touch is a touch as with each touch of the ball on offense players are trying to score or trying to set up a scoring opportunity....

                          "...the guys who fed him....their touches often resulted in either assists or turnovers...." is inaccurate. take nate mcmillan, a player who rarely shot the ball. well his FGAs still outnumber his TOs by almost 4 to 1. he did average more TOs than FTAs, but far more FGAs than TOs. thus if mcmillan wasn't passing (70-80% of the time he had possession of the ball), he was more than likely shooting (10-20% of the time he had the ball), and only turned the ball over 5% of the time or got fouled 3-4% of the time - infrequently. sedale threatt in his career shot the ball 5 to 6 times more often than he committed a TO...

                          bob chaikin
                          bchaikin@...























                        • mikel_ind
                          I am still unclear about estimating touches . Is this a term for all possessions used ? i.e., a touch which results in a shot attempt, foul, turnover, or
                          Message 12 of 18 , Aug 24, 2002
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                            I am still unclear about estimating 'touches'. Is this a term for
                            all possessions 'used'? i.e., a touch which results in a shot
                            attempt, foul, turnover, or assist?

                            If it isn't referring to a literal 'touch' (or temporary possession
                            of the ball), then it seems like not quite the right term. (Though,
                            it is notably more brief than 'possession used'.)

                            The real point of my inquiry is not the term one may use here, but
                            whether there are uncounted touches (low-risk passes, for example)
                            left out of the equation here. Players swinging the ball around the
                            perimeter, passing out of the double team -- whatever situation that
                            does not register an assist or TO -- don't get credited (or charged),
                            and yet they touched the ball.


                            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
                            > In a message dated 8/23/02 5:09:53 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
                            > harlanzo@y... writes:
                            >
                            > ".....can you estimate touches per game ... ?>

                            > this is what the Historical Statistical Database at the
                            www.apbr.org website
                            > lists for all players from 1977-78 to the present and for most of
                            the ABA
                            > years - turnovers as a percentage of total touches (its listed as %
                            TO).
                            > you'll see players like bogues at only 3% TO, meaning 3 turnovers
                            per 100
                            > ball possessions, which is excellent....



                            > AST/TO ratio is essentially a meaningless statistic. people use it
                            because
                            > its easy to calculate - just two simple numbers that are already
                            measured by
                            > the league, and at some point someone assigned importance to it. %
                            TO tells
                            > you how many times per 100 ball possessions a player turns it over -
                            far more
                            > meaningful and it puts every player on the same measuring
                            parameter, that of
                            > what occurs per ball possession...
                            >
                          • bchaikin@aol.com
                            possession factor (touches per minute) = (shots) + (passes) + (# times fouled) + (turnovers) shots = FGA passes = ast/factorA #times fouled = FTA/factorB if
                            Message 13 of 18 , Aug 24, 2002
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                              possession factor (touches per minute) =

                                        (shots) + (passes) + (# times fouled) + (turnovers)

                              shots = FGA
                              passes = ast/factorA
                              #times fouled = FTA/factorB

                              if you don't understand this or want to see it in "action" you can download the free demo from "members.aol.com/bchaikin" where the software plays entire seasons in minutes and then lists, among a hundred other things, player total possessions for a season...
                            • John W. Craven
                              ... And then there s the question of especially tough touches, the type that Allen Iverson seems to get a lot of. I m talking about the situations where a
                              Message 14 of 18 , Aug 24, 2002
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                                On Sat, 24 Aug 2002, mikel_ind wrote:

                                > I am still unclear about estimating 'touches'. Is this a term for
                                > all possessions 'used'? i.e., a touch which results in a shot
                                > attempt, foul, turnover, or assist?
                                >
                                > If it isn't referring to a literal 'touch' (or temporary possession
                                > of the ball), then it seems like not quite the right term. (Though,
                                > it is notably more brief than 'possession used'.)
                                >
                                > The real point of my inquiry is not the term one may use here, but
                                > whether there are uncounted touches (low-risk passes, for example)
                                > left out of the equation here. Players swinging the ball around the
                                > perimeter, passing out of the double team -- whatever situation that
                                > does not register an assist or TO -- don't get credited (or charged),
                                > and yet they touched the ball.

                                And then there's the question of especially tough "touches," the type that Allen Iverson seems to get a lot of. I'm talking about the situations where a player gets the ball with 5 seconds or left on the shot clock and must create something. If we ever do a Project Scoresheet thing with the NBA, I'd like to see us track these kinds of touches.

                                Anyway, I do have a couple points on Threatt, at least as to why his TOs/touch may be so low. For one, he tended to split his minutes between the 1 and the 2. For two, IIRC he was much more of a jump shooter who passed to the open man than a "drive-and-draw" style point guard; while both have their relative advantages and disadvantages, it seems to me that the particular disadvantages of the Threatt type (more breakdowns on offense lead to lower-percentage shots, more turnovers by other players, and the occasional shot-clock violation) don't show up in his line in the box score.

                                John Craven

                                >
                                >
                                > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
                                > > In a message dated 8/23/02 5:09:53 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
                                > > harlanzo@y... writes:
                                > >
                                > > ".....can you estimate touches per game ... ?>
                                >
                                > > this is what the Historical Statistical Database at the
                                > www.apbr.org website
                                > > lists for all players from 1977-78 to the present and for most of
                                > the ABA
                                > > years - turnovers as a percentage of total touches (its listed as %
                                > TO).
                                > > you'll see players like bogues at only 3% TO, meaning 3 turnovers
                                > per 100
                                > > ball possessions, which is excellent....
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > > AST/TO ratio is essentially a meaningless statistic. people use it
                                > because
                                > > its easy to calculate - just two simple numbers that are already
                                > measured by
                                > > the league, and at some point someone assigned importance to it. %
                                > TO tells
                                > > you how many times per 100 ball possessions a player turns it over -
                                > far more
                                > > meaningful and it puts every player on the same measuring
                                > parameter, that of
                                > > what occurs per ball possession...
                                > >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
                                > APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
                                >
                                >
                                >
                              • dlirag
                                ... balance ... real ... That s what Bob Chaikin does in his program. He defines touches per game as the sum of FGA, TO, the number of passes the player makes,
                                Message 15 of 18 , Aug 26, 2002
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                                  --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...> wrote:
                                  > So how do you meaningfully interpret turnovers? I agree that
                                  > context is important (ie Rodman's low turnovers do not indicate his
                                  > ballhandling ability). Can you estimate touches per game and then
                                  > divide turnovers into this number? That would theoretically
                                  balance
                                  > out the problems you mention. (of course determining what is a
                                  real
                                  > touch and tos in the half court v. fast break might make differnece
                                  > too.)

                                  That's what Bob Chaikin does in his program. He defines touches per
                                  game as the sum of FGA, TO, the number of passes the player makes,
                                  and the number of times he was fouled. It seems that the best
                                  ballhandlers are usually the point guards, turning the ball over on 5-
                                  6% of their touches. PF's and C's are on the other end of the
                                  spectrum with TO/touch percentages of 10% or more.
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