Yeah, I know about this guy. Have even corresponded occasionally, what I
mean is having read the academic research that has been published about this
sort of thing, and having seen tons of them, that that is sort of the basic
limit. To move a little past that you need to start taking other things
into account - injuries, scheduling, motivation, statistics, etc., etc.
You can get higher percentages when you have something with huge mismatches
like say, college basketball - e.g. if there are a lot of as good as 100%
victories in there, then the 'correct prediction' percentage will go up,
compared to any professional sport in general where the talent levels are
much more even.
From: HoopStudies [mailto:deano@...
Sent: July 08, 2002 6:51 PM
Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Game Predictions
--- In APBR_analysis@y..., "aussievamp2" <rnmscott@b...> wrote:
> --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
> > Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal
> > to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be.
> > generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65%
> > which is about what Massey is getting this year.
> > Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?
> This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several
> sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a variety of
> methods will get around the same results. The amount
> of 'information' in the scores used to produce the next prediction
> has an 'upper limit'. Seems to be pretty much right. So 60-70% is
> your range, and 70% perhaps a little unlikely for basketball?
I may not answer all of your posts today. I'm swamped. Let me point
you to Ken Massey's website where he makes predictions. He is at
or for NBA predictions
You can see he was 64-65% right. He did a pretty good job getting
the percentiles right, too.
Do I think 70% is possible with basketball? Yes, Massey does over
72% for college men's hoops and about 76% for college women's hoops.
It really depends upon the level of competition and the nature of the
game. Massey posts predictions for all sorts of sports and all sorts
of levels, making it kind of neat to compare.
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