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Re: WNBA talent level rising?

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  • HoopStudies
    ... determine ... increasing?), but ... This is a fundamental question actually. It has important ramifications for the importance of other things -- like
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 6, 2002
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell" <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
      > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would
      determine
      > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily
      increasing?), but
      > the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.
      >

      This is a fundamental question actually. It has important
      ramifications for the importance of other things -- like coaching,
      strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do we measure
      talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone down since
      the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to better coaching on
      the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc. There are a bunch
      of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but I don't think any
      of them do it very well. They assume that they can measure talent
      using something like a Pythagorean relationship and the difference
      between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean projection is
      coaching. Blech.

      > The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3
      in 1997
      > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted
      age I
      > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old
      that
      > never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old
      that
      > averages 35 minutes per game.
      >
      > The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has
      been shown
      > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.

      One of these days, I'll actually do the study for the NBA, but I've
      always been happy with the assumption of this peak age range for NBA
      players. I did just see a paper suggesting that women reach their
      performance peak a little later due to having kids. I did remember a
      story in SI that looked at female track athletes and present cases
      where they seemed to get a lot better after having kids.

      DeanO
    • mike harmon
      I would suggest that the talent level is roughly the same but what we are seeing is the affects of full time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 7, 2002
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        I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
        same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
        time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
        Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
        a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
        starter understands the "system" that the head coach
        has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
        Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
        ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
        Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
        with the talent.
        As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
        the level of play and not talent to continue to
        increase.
        Mike Harmon
        --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
        > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell"
        > <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
        > > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or
        > how you would
        > determine
        > > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is
        > necessarily
        > increasing?), but
        > > the league has only gotten slightly younger over
        > its duration.
        > >
        >
        > This is a fundamental question actually. It has
        > important
        > ramifications for the importance of other things --
        > like coaching,
        > strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do
        > we measure
        > talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone
        > down since
        > the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to
        > better coaching on
        > the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc.
        > There are a bunch
        > of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but
        > I don't think any
        > of them do it very well. They assume that they can
        > measure talent
        > using something like a Pythagorean relationship and
        > the difference
        > between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean
        > projection is
        > coaching. Blech.
        >
        > > The adjusted league average for years of age has
        > dropped from 27.3
        > in 1997
        > > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at
        > 26.5. By adjusted
        > age I
        > > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that
        > the 38 year old
        > that
        > > never gets off the bench does not count the same
        > as the 23 year old
        > that
        > > averages 35 minutes per game.
        > >
        > > The "peak age" for female basketball players is
        > 26-29 as it has
        > been shown
        > > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.
        >
        > One of these days, I'll actually do the study for
        > the NBA, but I've
        > always been happy with the assumption of this peak
        > age range for NBA
        > players. I did just see a paper suggesting that
        > women reach their
        > performance peak a little later due to having kids.
        > I did remember a
        > story in SI that looked at female track athletes and
        > present cases
        > where they seemed to get a lot better after having
        > kids.
        >
        > DeanO
        >
        >


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      • Richard Scott
        Interesting point. How would you define strength as you say here? The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think? So some
        Message 3 of 9 , Jul 8, 2002
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          Interesting point. How would you define 'strength' as you say here?

          The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think?
          So some stability there, but will they all survive, or be likely to survive?

          Richard

          -----Original Message-----
          From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
          Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
          To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?


          I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
          same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
          time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
          Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
          a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
          starter understands the "system" that the head coach
          has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
          Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
          ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
          Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
          with the talent.
          As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
          the level of play and not talent to continue to
          increase.
          Mike Harmon
        • mike harmon
          Strength in my mind is defined as being able to draw support to the product ( enough to more than just survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men s
          Message 4 of 9 , Jul 10, 2002
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            "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
            support to the product ( enough to more than just
            survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
            sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
            "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
            --- Richard Scott <rnmscott@...> wrote:
            > Interesting point. How would you define 'strength'
            > as you say here?
            >
            > The league has had the same number of teams as
            > currently since 2000 I think?
            > So some stability there, but will they all survive,
            > or be likely to survive?
            >
            > Richard
            >
            > -----Original Message-----
            > From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
            > Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
            > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
            > Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level
            > rising?
            >
            >
            > I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly
            > the
            > same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
            > time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
            > Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads
            > to
            > a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
            > starter understands the "system" that the head coach
            > has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
            > Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA
            > Champions
            > ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley,
            > Jerry
            > Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
            > with the talent.
            > As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look
            > for
            > the level of play and not talent to continue to
            > increase.
            > Mike Harmon
            >
            >


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          • rnmscott
            right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a downturn in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a minor league
            Message 5 of 9 , Jul 10, 2002
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              right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a 'downturn'
              in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a
              minor league like the WNBA can survive

              ----- Original Message -----
              From: mike harmon <svucoach@...>
              Date: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 10:15 am
              Subject: RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?

              > "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
              > support to the product ( enough to more than just
              > survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
              > sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
              > "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
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