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Re: [APBR_analysis] WNBA talent level rising?

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  • John Maxwell
    ... but ... That was my not-too-well presented thought. If scoring goes down, is it because offenses stink? because they use more time on the shot clock to
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 6, 2002
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      > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine
      > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?),
      but
      > the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.
      >
      >
      > -- Not sure John, but think there is perhaps a relationship between talent
      > and shooting
      > and ball-handling? Unless the defenses have got worse I suppose?
      >

      That was my not-too-well presented thought. If scoring goes down, is it
      because offenses stink? because they use more time on the shot clock to
      secure a more efficient shot? or because the defenses have improved? Which
      is the chicken and which is the egg? I'm not sure how you start going about
      breaking that down.
    • HoopStudies
      ... determine ... increasing?), but ... This is a fundamental question actually. It has important ramifications for the importance of other things -- like
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 6, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell" <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
        > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would
        determine
        > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily
        increasing?), but
        > the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.
        >

        This is a fundamental question actually. It has important
        ramifications for the importance of other things -- like coaching,
        strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do we measure
        talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone down since
        the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to better coaching on
        the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc. There are a bunch
        of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but I don't think any
        of them do it very well. They assume that they can measure talent
        using something like a Pythagorean relationship and the difference
        between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean projection is
        coaching. Blech.

        > The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3
        in 1997
        > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted
        age I
        > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old
        that
        > never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old
        that
        > averages 35 minutes per game.
        >
        > The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has
        been shown
        > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.

        One of these days, I'll actually do the study for the NBA, but I've
        always been happy with the assumption of this peak age range for NBA
        players. I did just see a paper suggesting that women reach their
        performance peak a little later due to having kids. I did remember a
        story in SI that looked at female track athletes and present cases
        where they seemed to get a lot better after having kids.

        DeanO
      • mike harmon
        I would suggest that the talent level is roughly the same but what we are seeing is the affects of full time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
        Message 3 of 9 , Jul 7, 2002
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          I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
          same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
          time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
          Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
          a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
          starter understands the "system" that the head coach
          has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
          Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
          ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
          Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
          with the talent.
          As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
          the level of play and not talent to continue to
          increase.
          Mike Harmon
          --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell"
          > <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
          > > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or
          > how you would
          > determine
          > > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is
          > necessarily
          > increasing?), but
          > > the league has only gotten slightly younger over
          > its duration.
          > >
          >
          > This is a fundamental question actually. It has
          > important
          > ramifications for the importance of other things --
          > like coaching,
          > strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do
          > we measure
          > talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone
          > down since
          > the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to
          > better coaching on
          > the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc.
          > There are a bunch
          > of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but
          > I don't think any
          > of them do it very well. They assume that they can
          > measure talent
          > using something like a Pythagorean relationship and
          > the difference
          > between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean
          > projection is
          > coaching. Blech.
          >
          > > The adjusted league average for years of age has
          > dropped from 27.3
          > in 1997
          > > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at
          > 26.5. By adjusted
          > age I
          > > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that
          > the 38 year old
          > that
          > > never gets off the bench does not count the same
          > as the 23 year old
          > that
          > > averages 35 minutes per game.
          > >
          > > The "peak age" for female basketball players is
          > 26-29 as it has
          > been shown
          > > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.
          >
          > One of these days, I'll actually do the study for
          > the NBA, but I've
          > always been happy with the assumption of this peak
          > age range for NBA
          > players. I did just see a paper suggesting that
          > women reach their
          > performance peak a little later due to having kids.
          > I did remember a
          > story in SI that looked at female track athletes and
          > present cases
          > where they seemed to get a lot better after having
          > kids.
          >
          > DeanO
          >
          >


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        • Richard Scott
          Interesting point. How would you define strength as you say here? The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think? So some
          Message 4 of 9 , Jul 8, 2002
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            Interesting point. How would you define 'strength' as you say here?

            The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think?
            So some stability there, but will they all survive, or be likely to survive?

            Richard

            -----Original Message-----
            From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
            Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
            To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
            Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?


            I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
            same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
            time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
            Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
            a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
            starter understands the "system" that the head coach
            has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
            Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
            ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
            Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
            with the talent.
            As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
            the level of play and not talent to continue to
            increase.
            Mike Harmon
          • mike harmon
            Strength in my mind is defined as being able to draw support to the product ( enough to more than just survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men s
            Message 5 of 9 , Jul 10, 2002
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              "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
              support to the product ( enough to more than just
              survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
              sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
              "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
              --- Richard Scott <rnmscott@...> wrote:
              > Interesting point. How would you define 'strength'
              > as you say here?
              >
              > The league has had the same number of teams as
              > currently since 2000 I think?
              > So some stability there, but will they all survive,
              > or be likely to survive?
              >
              > Richard
              >
              > -----Original Message-----
              > From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
              > Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
              > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
              > Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level
              > rising?
              >
              >
              > I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly
              > the
              > same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
              > time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
              > Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads
              > to
              > a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
              > starter understands the "system" that the head coach
              > has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
              > Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA
              > Champions
              > ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley,
              > Jerry
              > Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
              > with the talent.
              > As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look
              > for
              > the level of play and not talent to continue to
              > increase.
              > Mike Harmon
              >
              >


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            • rnmscott
              right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a downturn in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a minor league
              Message 6 of 9 , Jul 10, 2002
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                right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a 'downturn'
                in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a
                minor league like the WNBA can survive

                ----- Original Message -----
                From: mike harmon <svucoach@...>
                Date: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 10:15 am
                Subject: RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?

                > "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
                > support to the product ( enough to more than just
                > survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
                > sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
                > "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
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