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Re: [APBR_analysis] WNBA talent level rising?

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  • John Maxwell
    I m not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?), but the
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 6, 2002
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      I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine
      that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?), but
      the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.

      The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3 in 1997
      to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted age I
      mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old that
      never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old that
      averages 35 minutes per game.

      The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has been shown
      to be in other sports, most notably baseball.


      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "rnmscott" <rnmscott@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 1:38 PM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] WNBA talent level rising?


      > Someone observed yesterday than when the WNBA started, the average
      > player age was 30 - older pros presumably. Now it is around 27.
      >
      > I have not checked this, but couple of times 27 has been mentioned
      > as 'peak age' for performance for basketball in the NBA - not sure if
      > this holds for WNBA/females though?
      >
      > Anyway - seems that the field goal percentage is up about 1% this year
      > as is the 3pt%. Also, the assist to turnover ratio (vague talent
      > indicator) is up from about 1 to 1.06 as of before yesterday. Hence
      > scoring is up about 6 points a game. H-A differential sti.ll similar
      >
      > Do all these suggest the talent level is indeed increasing in this
      > league, so moving away from 'collegeness' level of talent to become
      > more 'professional'?
      >
      >
      >
      >
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    • John Maxwell
      ... but ... That was my not-too-well presented thought. If scoring goes down, is it because offenses stink? because they use more time on the shot clock to
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 6, 2002
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        > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine
        > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?),
        but
        > the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.
        >
        >
        > -- Not sure John, but think there is perhaps a relationship between talent
        > and shooting
        > and ball-handling? Unless the defenses have got worse I suppose?
        >

        That was my not-too-well presented thought. If scoring goes down, is it
        because offenses stink? because they use more time on the shot clock to
        secure a more efficient shot? or because the defenses have improved? Which
        is the chicken and which is the egg? I'm not sure how you start going about
        breaking that down.
      • Richard Scott
        ... From: John Maxwell [mailto:John.Maxwell@CharlotteSting.com] Sent: July 06, 2002 12:31 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis]
        Message 3 of 9 , Jul 6, 2002
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          -----Original Message-----
          From: John Maxwell [mailto:John.Maxwell@...]
          Sent: July 06, 2002 12:31 PM
          To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] WNBA talent level rising?


          I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine
          that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?), but
          the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.


          -- Not sure John, but think there is perhaps a relationship between talent
          and shooting
          and ball-handling? Unless the defenses have got worse I suppose?

          The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3 in 1997
          to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted age I
          mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old that
          never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old that
          averages 35 minutes per game.

          The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has been shown
          to be in other sports, most notably baseball.


          -- Thanks very much for that, interesting. Does anyone have a similar
          number for the NBA?


          Richard
        • HoopStudies
          ... determine ... increasing?), but ... This is a fundamental question actually. It has important ramifications for the importance of other things -- like
          Message 4 of 9 , Jul 6, 2002
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            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell" <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
            > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would
            determine
            > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily
            increasing?), but
            > the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.
            >

            This is a fundamental question actually. It has important
            ramifications for the importance of other things -- like coaching,
            strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do we measure
            talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone down since
            the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to better coaching on
            the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc. There are a bunch
            of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but I don't think any
            of them do it very well. They assume that they can measure talent
            using something like a Pythagorean relationship and the difference
            between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean projection is
            coaching. Blech.

            > The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3
            in 1997
            > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted
            age I
            > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old
            that
            > never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old
            that
            > averages 35 minutes per game.
            >
            > The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has
            been shown
            > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.

            One of these days, I'll actually do the study for the NBA, but I've
            always been happy with the assumption of this peak age range for NBA
            players. I did just see a paper suggesting that women reach their
            performance peak a little later due to having kids. I did remember a
            story in SI that looked at female track athletes and present cases
            where they seemed to get a lot better after having kids.

            DeanO
          • mike harmon
            I would suggest that the talent level is roughly the same but what we are seeing is the affects of full time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
            Message 5 of 9 , Jul 7, 2002
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              I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
              same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
              time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
              Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
              a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
              starter understands the "system" that the head coach
              has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
              Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
              ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
              Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
              with the talent.
              As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
              the level of play and not talent to continue to
              increase.
              Mike Harmon
              --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
              > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell"
              > <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
              > > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or
              > how you would
              > determine
              > > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is
              > necessarily
              > increasing?), but
              > > the league has only gotten slightly younger over
              > its duration.
              > >
              >
              > This is a fundamental question actually. It has
              > important
              > ramifications for the importance of other things --
              > like coaching,
              > strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do
              > we measure
              > talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone
              > down since
              > the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to
              > better coaching on
              > the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc.
              > There are a bunch
              > of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but
              > I don't think any
              > of them do it very well. They assume that they can
              > measure talent
              > using something like a Pythagorean relationship and
              > the difference
              > between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean
              > projection is
              > coaching. Blech.
              >
              > > The adjusted league average for years of age has
              > dropped from 27.3
              > in 1997
              > > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at
              > 26.5. By adjusted
              > age I
              > > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that
              > the 38 year old
              > that
              > > never gets off the bench does not count the same
              > as the 23 year old
              > that
              > > averages 35 minutes per game.
              > >
              > > The "peak age" for female basketball players is
              > 26-29 as it has
              > been shown
              > > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.
              >
              > One of these days, I'll actually do the study for
              > the NBA, but I've
              > always been happy with the assumption of this peak
              > age range for NBA
              > players. I did just see a paper suggesting that
              > women reach their
              > performance peak a little later due to having kids.
              > I did remember a
              > story in SI that looked at female track athletes and
              > present cases
              > where they seemed to get a lot better after having
              > kids.
              >
              > DeanO
              >
              >


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            • Richard Scott
              Interesting point. How would you define strength as you say here? The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think? So some
              Message 6 of 9 , Jul 8, 2002
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                Interesting point. How would you define 'strength' as you say here?

                The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think?
                So some stability there, but will they all survive, or be likely to survive?

                Richard

                -----Original Message-----
                From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
                Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
                To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?


                I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
                same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
                time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
                Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
                a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
                starter understands the "system" that the head coach
                has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
                Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
                ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
                Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
                with the talent.
                As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
                the level of play and not talent to continue to
                increase.
                Mike Harmon
              • mike harmon
                Strength in my mind is defined as being able to draw support to the product ( enough to more than just survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men s
                Message 7 of 9 , Jul 10, 2002
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                  "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
                  support to the product ( enough to more than just
                  survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
                  sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
                  "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
                  --- Richard Scott <rnmscott@...> wrote:
                  > Interesting point. How would you define 'strength'
                  > as you say here?
                  >
                  > The league has had the same number of teams as
                  > currently since 2000 I think?
                  > So some stability there, but will they all survive,
                  > or be likely to survive?
                  >
                  > Richard
                  >
                  > -----Original Message-----
                  > From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
                  > Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
                  > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                  > Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level
                  > rising?
                  >
                  >
                  > I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly
                  > the
                  > same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
                  > time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
                  > Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads
                  > to
                  > a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
                  > starter understands the "system" that the head coach
                  > has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
                  > Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA
                  > Champions
                  > ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley,
                  > Jerry
                  > Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
                  > with the talent.
                  > As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look
                  > for
                  > the level of play and not talent to continue to
                  > increase.
                  > Mike Harmon
                  >
                  >


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                • rnmscott
                  right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a downturn in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a minor league
                  Message 8 of 9 , Jul 10, 2002
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                    right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a 'downturn'
                    in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a
                    minor league like the WNBA can survive

                    ----- Original Message -----
                    From: mike harmon <svucoach@...>
                    Date: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 10:15 am
                    Subject: RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?

                    > "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
                    > support to the product ( enough to more than just
                    > survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
                    > sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
                    > "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
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