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WNBA talent level rising?

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  • rnmscott
    Someone observed yesterday than when the WNBA started, the average player age was 30 - older pros presumably. Now it is around 27. I have not checked this,
    Message 1 of 9 , Jul 5 10:38 AM
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      Someone observed yesterday than when the WNBA started, the average
      player age was 30 - older pros presumably. Now it is around 27.

      I have not checked this, but couple of times 27 has been mentioned
      as 'peak age' for performance for basketball in the NBA - not sure if
      this holds for WNBA/females though?

      Anyway - seems that the field goal percentage is up about 1% this year
      as is the 3pt%. Also, the assist to turnover ratio (vague talent
      indicator) is up from about 1 to 1.06 as of before yesterday. Hence
      scoring is up about 6 points a game. H-A differential sti.ll similar

      Do all these suggest the talent level is indeed increasing in this
      league, so moving away from 'collegeness' level of talent to become
      more 'professional'?
    • John Maxwell
      I m not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?), but the
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 6 10:31 AM
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        I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine
        that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?), but
        the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.

        The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3 in 1997
        to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted age I
        mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old that
        never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old that
        averages 35 minutes per game.

        The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has been shown
        to be in other sports, most notably baseball.


        ----- Original Message -----
        From: "rnmscott" <rnmscott@...>
        To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 1:38 PM
        Subject: [APBR_analysis] WNBA talent level rising?


        > Someone observed yesterday than when the WNBA started, the average
        > player age was 30 - older pros presumably. Now it is around 27.
        >
        > I have not checked this, but couple of times 27 has been mentioned
        > as 'peak age' for performance for basketball in the NBA - not sure if
        > this holds for WNBA/females though?
        >
        > Anyway - seems that the field goal percentage is up about 1% this year
        > as is the 3pt%. Also, the assist to turnover ratio (vague talent
        > indicator) is up from about 1 to 1.06 as of before yesterday. Hence
        > scoring is up about 6 points a game. H-A differential sti.ll similar
        >
        > Do all these suggest the talent level is indeed increasing in this
        > league, so moving away from 'collegeness' level of talent to become
        > more 'professional'?
        >
        >
        >
        >
        > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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        >
        >
        >
      • John Maxwell
        ... but ... That was my not-too-well presented thought. If scoring goes down, is it because offenses stink? because they use more time on the shot clock to
        Message 3 of 9 , Jul 6 10:47 AM
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          > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine
          > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?),
          but
          > the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.
          >
          >
          > -- Not sure John, but think there is perhaps a relationship between talent
          > and shooting
          > and ball-handling? Unless the defenses have got worse I suppose?
          >

          That was my not-too-well presented thought. If scoring goes down, is it
          because offenses stink? because they use more time on the shot clock to
          secure a more efficient shot? or because the defenses have improved? Which
          is the chicken and which is the egg? I'm not sure how you start going about
          breaking that down.
        • Richard Scott
          ... From: John Maxwell [mailto:John.Maxwell@CharlotteSting.com] Sent: July 06, 2002 12:31 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis]
          Message 4 of 9 , Jul 6 10:57 AM
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            -----Original Message-----
            From: John Maxwell [mailto:John.Maxwell@...]
            Sent: July 06, 2002 12:31 PM
            To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
            Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] WNBA talent level rising?


            I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would determine
            that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily increasing?), but
            the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.


            -- Not sure John, but think there is perhaps a relationship between talent
            and shooting
            and ball-handling? Unless the defenses have got worse I suppose?

            The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3 in 1997
            to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted age I
            mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old that
            never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old that
            averages 35 minutes per game.

            The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has been shown
            to be in other sports, most notably baseball.


            -- Thanks very much for that, interesting. Does anyone have a similar
            number for the NBA?


            Richard
          • HoopStudies
            ... determine ... increasing?), but ... This is a fundamental question actually. It has important ramifications for the importance of other things -- like
            Message 5 of 9 , Jul 6 1:13 PM
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              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell" <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
              > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or how you would
              determine
              > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is necessarily
              increasing?), but
              > the league has only gotten slightly younger over its duration.
              >

              This is a fundamental question actually. It has important
              ramifications for the importance of other things -- like coaching,
              strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do we measure
              talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone down since
              the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to better coaching on
              the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc. There are a bunch
              of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but I don't think any
              of them do it very well. They assume that they can measure talent
              using something like a Pythagorean relationship and the difference
              between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean projection is
              coaching. Blech.

              > The adjusted league average for years of age has dropped from 27.3
              in 1997
              > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at 26.5. By adjusted
              age I
              > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that the 38 year old
              that
              > never gets off the bench does not count the same as the 23 year old
              that
              > averages 35 minutes per game.
              >
              > The "peak age" for female basketball players is 26-29 as it has
              been shown
              > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.

              One of these days, I'll actually do the study for the NBA, but I've
              always been happy with the assumption of this peak age range for NBA
              players. I did just see a paper suggesting that women reach their
              performance peak a little later due to having kids. I did remember a
              story in SI that looked at female track athletes and present cases
              where they seemed to get a lot better after having kids.

              DeanO
            • mike harmon
              I would suggest that the talent level is roughly the same but what we are seeing is the affects of full time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
              Message 6 of 9 , Jul 7 4:56 PM
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                I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
                same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
                time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
                Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
                a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
                starter understands the "system" that the head coach
                has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
                Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
                ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
                Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
                with the talent.
                As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
                the level of play and not talent to continue to
                increase.
                Mike Harmon
                --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
                > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell"
                > <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
                > > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or
                > how you would
                > determine
                > > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is
                > necessarily
                > increasing?), but
                > > the league has only gotten slightly younger over
                > its duration.
                > >
                >
                > This is a fundamental question actually. It has
                > important
                > ramifications for the importance of other things --
                > like coaching,
                > strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do
                > we measure
                > talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone
                > down since
                > the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to
                > better coaching on
                > the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc.
                > There are a bunch
                > of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but
                > I don't think any
                > of them do it very well. They assume that they can
                > measure talent
                > using something like a Pythagorean relationship and
                > the difference
                > between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean
                > projection is
                > coaching. Blech.
                >
                > > The adjusted league average for years of age has
                > dropped from 27.3
                > in 1997
                > > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at
                > 26.5. By adjusted
                > age I
                > > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that
                > the 38 year old
                > that
                > > never gets off the bench does not count the same
                > as the 23 year old
                > that
                > > averages 35 minutes per game.
                > >
                > > The "peak age" for female basketball players is
                > 26-29 as it has
                > been shown
                > > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.
                >
                > One of these days, I'll actually do the study for
                > the NBA, but I've
                > always been happy with the assumption of this peak
                > age range for NBA
                > players. I did just see a paper suggesting that
                > women reach their
                > performance peak a little later due to having kids.
                > I did remember a
                > story in SI that looked at female track athletes and
                > present cases
                > where they seemed to get a lot better after having
                > kids.
                >
                > DeanO
                >
                >


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              • Richard Scott
                Interesting point. How would you define strength as you say here? The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think? So some
                Message 7 of 9 , Jul 8 12:39 PM
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                  Interesting point. How would you define 'strength' as you say here?

                  The league has had the same number of teams as currently since 2000 I think?
                  So some stability there, but will they all survive, or be likely to survive?

                  Richard

                  -----Original Message-----
                  From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
                  Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
                  To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                  Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?


                  I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
                  same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
                  time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
                  Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
                  a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
                  starter understands the "system" that the head coach
                  has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
                  Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
                  ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
                  Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
                  with the talent.
                  As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
                  the level of play and not talent to continue to
                  increase.
                  Mike Harmon
                • mike harmon
                  Strength in my mind is defined as being able to draw support to the product ( enough to more than just survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men s
                  Message 8 of 9 , Jul 10 8:15 AM
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                    "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
                    support to the product ( enough to more than just
                    survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
                    sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
                    "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
                    --- Richard Scott <rnmscott@...> wrote:
                    > Interesting point. How would you define 'strength'
                    > as you say here?
                    >
                    > The league has had the same number of teams as
                    > currently since 2000 I think?
                    > So some stability there, but will they all survive,
                    > or be likely to survive?
                    >
                    > Richard
                    >
                    > -----Original Message-----
                    > From: mike harmon [mailto:svucoach@...]
                    > Sent: July 07, 2002 6:56 PM
                    > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                    > Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level
                    > rising?
                    >
                    >
                    > I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly
                    > the
                    > same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
                    > time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
                    > Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads
                    > to
                    > a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
                    > starter understands the "system" that the head coach
                    > has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
                    > Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA
                    > Champions
                    > ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley,
                    > Jerry
                    > Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
                    > with the talent.
                    > As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look
                    > for
                    > the level of play and not talent to continue to
                    > increase.
                    > Mike Harmon
                    >
                    >


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                  • rnmscott
                    right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a downturn in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a minor league
                    Message 9 of 9 , Jul 10 9:13 AM
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                      right,well around the world professional sport in a bit of a 'downturn'
                      in the sports marketing lifestyle I guess,so be interesting to see if a
                      minor league like the WNBA can survive

                      ----- Original Message -----
                      From: mike harmon <svucoach@...>
                      Date: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 10:15 am
                      Subject: RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?

                      > "Strength" in my mind is defined as being able to draw
                      > support to the product ( enough to more than just
                      > survive ). If the WNBA decides to become as the men's
                      > sports in the U.S. and strike, we may see that
                      > "strength" dwindle and the WNBA become a memory.
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