Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: Game Predictions

Expand Messages
  • aussievamp2
    ... ways ... He ... clip, ... This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a
    Message 1 of 4 , Jul 4, 2002
    • 0 Attachment
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
      >
      > Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal
      ways
      > to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be.
      He
      > generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65%
      clip,
      > which is about what Massey is getting this year.
      >
      > Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?
      >

      This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several
      sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a variety of
      methods will get around the same results. The amount
      of 'information' in the scores used to produce the next prediction
      has an 'upper limit'. Seems to be pretty much right. So 60-70% is
      your range, and 70% perhaps a little unlikely for basketball?
    • HoopStudies
      ... I may not answer all of your posts today. I m swamped. Let me point you to Ken Massey s website where he makes predictions. He is at
      Message 2 of 4 , Jul 8, 2002
      • 0 Attachment
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "aussievamp2" <rnmscott@b...> wrote:
        > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
        > >
        > > Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal
        > ways
        > > to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be.
        > He
        > > generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65%
        > clip,
        > > which is about what Massey is getting this year.
        > >
        > > Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?
        > >
        >
        > This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several
        > sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a variety of
        > methods will get around the same results. The amount
        > of 'information' in the scores used to produce the next prediction
        > has an 'upper limit'. Seems to be pretty much right. So 60-70% is
        > your range, and 70% perhaps a little unlikely for basketball?

        I may not answer all of your posts today. I'm swamped. Let me point
        you to Ken Massey's website where he makes predictions. He is at

        http://www.mratings.com/

        or for NBA predictions

        http://www.mratings.com/rate/nba-p.htm

        You can see he was 64-65% right. He did a pretty good job getting
        the percentiles right, too.

        Do I think 70% is possible with basketball? Yes, Massey does over
        72% for college men's hoops and about 76% for college women's hoops.
        It really depends upon the level of competition and the nature of the
        game. Massey posts predictions for all sorts of sports and all sorts
        of levels, making it kind of neat to compare.

        DeanO
      • Richard Scott
        Yeah, I know about this guy. Have even corresponded occasionally, what I mean is having read the academic research that has been published about this sort of
        Message 3 of 4 , Jul 8, 2002
        • 0 Attachment
          Yeah, I know about this guy. Have even corresponded occasionally, what I
          mean is having read the academic research that has been published about this
          sort of thing, and having seen tons of them, that that is sort of the basic
          limit. To move a little past that you need to start taking other things
          into account - injuries, scheduling, motivation, statistics, etc., etc.

          You can get higher percentages when you have something with huge mismatches
          like say, college basketball - e.g. if there are a lot of as good as 100%
          victories in there, then the 'correct prediction' percentage will go up,
          compared to any professional sport in general where the talent levels are
          much more even.

          -----Original Message-----
          From: HoopStudies [mailto:deano@...]
          Sent: July 08, 2002 6:51 PM
          To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Game Predictions


          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "aussievamp2" <rnmscott@b...> wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
          > >
          > > Someone did some work for me recently to study what are optimal
          > ways
          > > to use the methods and to look at how good the methods could be.
          > He
          > > generally found that they can only predict games at about a 65%
          > clip,
          > > which is about what Massey is getting this year.
          > >
          > > Has anyone seen other systems that legitimately do better?
          > >
          >
          > This is an area of interest for me, have looked at this for several
          > sports, and some academic conclusions seem to be that a variety of
          > methods will get around the same results. The amount
          > of 'information' in the scores used to produce the next prediction
          > has an 'upper limit'. Seems to be pretty much right. So 60-70% is
          > your range, and 70% perhaps a little unlikely for basketball?

          I may not answer all of your posts today. I'm swamped. Let me point
          you to Ken Massey's website where he makes predictions. He is at

          http://www.mratings.com/

          or for NBA predictions

          http://www.mratings.com/rate/nba-p.htm

          You can see he was 64-65% right. He did a pretty good job getting
          the percentiles right, too.

          Do I think 70% is possible with basketball? Yes, Massey does over
          72% for college men's hoops and about 76% for college women's hoops.
          It really depends upon the level of competition and the nature of the
          game. Massey posts predictions for all sorts of sports and all sorts
          of levels, making it kind of neat to compare.

          DeanO



          To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
          APBR_analysis-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com



          Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
        Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.