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977Re: Playoff overachievers, revisited

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  • mikel_ind
    May 12, 2002
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      Here is a partial list of (retired) players who had particularly
      overachieving playoff careers. See the previous post for
      clarification.

      An earlier post had an unrefined attempt to rank players in terms
      of 'equivalent extra games of production'. For example, Bill Russell
      played some 208 x 36 playoff minutes (which I call 208 eGames), and
      he produced 220 eG worth. That's a ratio of 1.054.

      Looking for a 'typical' playoff-reduction rate, I think .940 is about
      right. The 445 players I measured tended to be higher, but they
      didn't include any 'scrubs', only average-and-better players.

      In other words, an average player's productivity falls by about 6% in
      the postseason.

      So my formula for 'equivalent extra playoff games of production' is :
      eXG = (R-.94)*eGP , where R is PO/RS production ratio, and eGP is
      equivalent games-worth of production.

      It's harder to describe this than to do it.

      eXG - player -------- po/rs eGP
      25.1 Bill Russell --- 1.054 220
      19.6 Michael Jordan - 1.032 214
      18.3 Isiah Thomas --- 1.084 127
      17.5 John Havlicek -- 1.029 196
      16.7 Dennis Johnson - 1.024 199
      16.6 David Wingate -- 1.515 29
      16.2 Kareem AbdulJabb 1.005 247
      16.0 Jimmy Jones ---- 1.102 99
      15.7 Jerry West ----- 1.027 180
      15.3 Roger Brown ---- 1.068 120
      14.7 Cliff Hagan ---- 1.096 94
      13.6 Maurice Cheeks - 1.037 140
      12.9 Jerome Kersey -- 1.068 101
      12.7 Freddie Lewis -- 1.045 121
      12.2 Gus Williams --- 1.069 95
      12.2 James Worthy --- 1.021 150
      11.5 Michael Cooper - 1.025 135
      10.0 Tom Meschery --- 1.172 43

      An odd mix of Hall-of-Famers and supporting players, plus David
      Wingate! Here are some more:

      9.9 Magic Johnson ---- .988 207
      9.7 Vinnie Johnson -- 1.063 79
      9.6 Elvin Hayes ----- 1.021 118
      9.3 Gerald Govan ---- 1.098 59
      9.3 Jo Jo White ----- 1.034 98
      9.0 Maurice Lucas --- 1.039 90
      8.5 Randy Wittman --- 1.179 36
      8.4 Don Nelson ------ 1.031 92
      8.4 Johnny Moore ---- 1.176 35
      8.2 Sedale Threatt -- 1.125 44
      8.1 Rick Barry ------ 1.011 114
      7.8 Bob Lanier ------ 1.054 69
      7.7 Mike Gale ------- 1.090 52
      7.7 Fred Carter ----- 1.180 32
      7.7 Paul Arizin ----- 1.082 54
      7.6 Bob Dandridge --- 1.010 109
      7.5 Willie Wise ----- 1.037 78
      7.4 Ron Boone ------- 1.035 78
      7.2 John Salley ----- 1.034 77
      7.0 Charles Barkley -- .992 134
      6.8 Scott Wedman ---- 1.058 58
      6.7 Julius Erving ---- .974 199
      6.2 Lenny Wilkens --- 1.030 69
      6.0 Tom Heinsohn ---- 1.007 90
      5.9 Dolph Schayes --- 1.018 76
      5.9 Kiki Vanderweghe- 1.062 48
      5.8 Billy Paultz ----- .997 101

      That would be about the top 10%
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