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950Re: replacement level players

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  • HoopStudies
    May 6, 2002
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      >
      >
      > Interesting, 5% strikes me as a bit low, but maybe not.
      >
      > Working backwards, I'd guess that a team that is 3 points down,
      withOUT
      > the ball, with 10 seconds left, has about a 5% chance of winning.
      Let's
      > test that hunch (best way to do this would be to work through
      thousands of
      > play-by-play sheets, but who's going to do that, so let's do it
      > theoretically): foul immediately. With a FT% of 70%, there's a 9%
      chance
      > the opponent will miss both FTs. Then maybe a 30% chance that the
      team
      > can make the 3pter. And presumably about a 50% chance of winning
      in OT.
      >
      > Oops, that comes out to 1.35%, far less than 5%.
      > On the other hand, if they do have the ball, they've got about a 15%
      > chance of winning. Assuming that 10 seconds is enough time for
      them to
      > get a 30% probability 3-pt attempt.
      >

      I worked through this logic once in the past, looking to calculate
      odds of winning, but the branching of the tree gets pretty huge.

      I'm not sure where the cutoff should be actually. I throw 5% out
      there because it also eliminates a fair number of the stats of high
      scoring individuals on really bad teams (their teams are out of many
      games by halftime). If we end up cutting the last couple minutes out
      of a really good player's pool of numbers, I'm not as concerned.
      They still have a lot of stats that show they are good.


      > A friend of mine assumes a game to be out of reach ("in the
      refrigerator",
      > as Chick Hearn would put it, although he put one into the
      refrigerator
      > prematurely recently, I think it was the Laker's last regular
      season game
      > against Portland) when the point differential is at least 2t+7,
      where "t"
      > is the number of minutes left. I haven't done an extensive study,
      but I
      > haven't seen it violated yet. E.g. Reggie Miller's epic comeback
      against
      > the Knicks was I think 8 points in 25 seconds, not 9 points. (Can
      we
      > quantify Reggie's playoff antics? He sure *seems* to have had more
      > last-second playoff heroics than most other players, even superstar
      > players.)
      >

      Reggie's antics in that game were of the <0.01% variety, I'm
      betting. Against NJ the other night, being down 3 with 4 s left and
      the ball should be on the order of about 15%, assuming ~50% win% in
      OT and 30% on 3 pt shot.

      > Ralph Lawler, the Clippers play-by-play guy, likes to talk
      about "Lawler's
      > Law": the team which first reaches 100 points wins the game. (In
      today's
      > slowdown NBA, one might even be able to lower the threshold to 90
      points.)
      > I can't recall seeing Lawler's law fail (partly because so few
      games reach
      > 100 points these days), but I'm sure it does fail occasionally --
      perhaps
      > 5% of the time?? Anyway, that might be yet another way of
      identifying
      > the 5% games.

      We really need a Project Play-By-Play, where we develop a db of play-
      by-plays. I am willing to volunteer a bunch of play-by-plays. I can
      probably get most of them into electronic format, though some will be
      in different formats than others. Who wants to develop the db
      structure and import things?

      I can post a couple example formats. I like the Printable Play-by-
      Plays at NBA.com, but those are limited historically.

      DeanO
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