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948Re: replacement level players

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  • HoopStudies
    May 6, 2002
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "alleyoop2" <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > I'll take this a step further and say that you may be seeing a self-
      > selected sample. There's two possibilities:
      >
      > 1) With marginal players like Scott Williams and John Wallace, it
      > only makes sense to play them when there's a particular matchup
      > that's in their favor, which is why they look good when they play a
      > lot of minutes (and have a matchup in their favor), and not so good
      > when they don't.
      >
      > 2) With a guy like John Wallace, he may get 15+ minutes mostly in
      > games that are blowouts, where he tends to be playing against the
      > other teams scrubs, where he thus produces more offensively than
      one
      > might reasonably expect.

      Yeah. This is also why the relationship you'd think that would exist
      between a team's winning% and good player's minutes doesn't show up
      in first-order analyses. I remember looking at Bull games with
      Jordan at varying minutes. I think they won more when he played
      fewer minutes, basically because there was much more garbage time
      when he played <30 minutes (which is also when replacement players
      get >20 minutes).

      (Personally, I do feel that Williams was important to the Bucks last
      year. His playoff numbers last year were quite good. His regular
      season numbers somewhat similar. Either way, he did a lot of the
      dirty defensive work that no one stepped in to do without him.)

      It points at using play-by-plays to analyze players. Only count a
      player's contributions when the game is competitive. When is a game
      competitive? When each team has at least a 5% chance of winning, I
      think. How do we know what a 5% chance of winning is? From play-by-
      plays. I've got a bunch of paper pbps, but putting them into a
      database is not on my priority list.

      DeanO
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