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947Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: replacement level players

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  • Michael K. Tamada
    May 6 11:23 AM
      On Mon, 6 May 2002, alleyoop2 wrote:

      > I'll take this a step further and say that you may be seeing a self-
      > selected sample. There's two possibilities:
      >
      > 1) With marginal players like Scott Williams and John Wallace, it
      > only makes sense to play them when there's a particular matchup
      > that's in their favor, which is why they look good when they play a
      > lot of minutes (and have a matchup in their favor), and not so good
      > when they don't.
      >
      > 2) With a guy like John Wallace, he may get 15+ minutes mostly in
      > games that are blowouts, where he tends to be playing against the
      > other teams scrubs, where he thus produces more offensively than one
      > might reasonably expect.


      Both are excellent points, although implicitly covered by MikeG when he
      wrote:

      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...> wrote:

      [...]

      > > Most likely, he is a streaky shooter, as well as a limited player.
      > > In other words, when he isn't hitting, he doesn't bring much game
      > at
      > > all.

      [...]

      > > This might be where coaches earn their money (and why we don't get
      > > paid for This). If Wallace is on, play him. If not, back to the
      > > bench.

      [...]

      > > Again, when your 4th- or 5th-best player has a strong game, you are
      > > much more likely to win. That doesn't mean playing this guy 30-40
      > > minutes, regardless, is going to get you the same results.


      Yup, another way to re-state what MikeG and Alleyoop2 wrote is that we
      have to look at cause-and-effect, not just the raw stats and the
      correlations in those stats. Sometimes, especially for star players, good
      stats ==> victory. But for a 12th man, and sometimes for 4th or 5th men,
      the causality will typically be the opposite: victory ==> good stats.

      > > Consistency is a much-sought quality in players.

      Yeah, those standard deviations again, that we were looking at a couple of
      months ago.


      --MKT
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