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846Re: NCAA -> NBA translation

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  • thedawgsareout
    Apr 11, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...> wrote:
      > I think the baseball translations work a little better than a
      > basketball one would. The important thing to recognize is that
      > translations in baseball seem to vary by league. Similarly in
      > basketball, a 20 ppg scorer in the ivy league does not equal to one
      > in the ACC. So I am not sure how to quantify this difference.

      Yes, the baseball translations are not just by level, but by league.
      The Pacific Coast League, for example, is AAA, as is the
      International League, but the IL is considered a higher-quality
      league. The way these translations work is with a MLE -- Minor League
      Equivalency, developed, like everything else, by Bill James.

      The first of many problems we find in trying to do the same for the
      NCAA is that even within the leagues themselves, teams are playing
      widely variant schedules. About 40% of games are going to be non-
      conference ones, and assuredly Oregon State isn't playing the same
      non-conference teams as Arizona.

      Team quality also isn't a problem in baseball thanks to the
      development of team-independent stats. As hard as we may try -- and
      Dean's column about the effect of Jerry Stackhouse on the Pistons was
      quite interesting -- it's still tough to de-context a player's stats,
      and I imagine doubly so for NCAA players.

      I think what is a more reasonable goal for the time being might be to
      try to look at what *types* of players make for good pros. It's been
      mentioned that both Carter and Jordan were high-efficiency guys on
      very good teams. Is this type of player particularly successful in
      making the transition? Basically, I guess this gets back to the four
      types of players (high-efficiency, low productivity . . .) that were
      discussed way back in January. Is any specific group translating to
      the pro game better than the others? Why?
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