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841Re: [APBR_analysis] Jason Williams was: A few questions

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  • Ed Weiland
    Apr 10, 2002
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      --- "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@...> wrote:
      >
      >
      > >
      >
      > Has anyone ever tried to convert NCAA stats into
      > predictions
      > of NBA stats, as people do with minor league and
      > major
      > league baseball? My guess is that the prediction
      > errors would
      > be very large for the NBA (and who knows, they may
      > be large
      > for baseball as well, I'm not sure how much faith to
      > put
      > into those minor-league-to-major-league conversion
      > factors).
      >
      > Sometimes a good-looking college player like Michael
      > Jordan
      > turns into an extraordinary NBA player like Michael
      > Jordan.
      > Conversely, those 32+ ppg scorers like Freeman
      > Williams,
      > Averitt, Birdsong, Maravich, etc. rarely match their
      > college
      > scoring exploits.


      >
      >

      I suspect some sort of workable system could be
      created. I've been rating college players for a few
      years now using a "good stuff minus bad stuff" type of
      system. It seems to work OK for centers and PFs, but
      not so well for guards and SFs.

      Problems that come up:

      Height. In college ball some players can excel as a
      6'4 PF or a 6'7 center. In the NBA that won't fly.
      Keith Booth, Jarrett Stephens and Harold Arceneaux are
      some recent college players who rated pretty high
      stat-wise, but were just too short.

      Pace of game. Some teams, like Duke and Kansas, like
      to push the ball. Others, like Utah, like to slow it
      down. As we know, this affects individual numbers. The
      problem is seperating the good players--i.e. Elton
      Brand--from the guys with inflated stats--i.e. Stacey
      King and Bo Kimble. That's probably what the camps are
      for.

      Early entry. It's much easier to judge a player with
      3-4 years of college than it is to judge a player with
      one year. MOst freshman aren't anywhere near being
      finished products, so there's a lot of projection
      involved there.

      Superstar teammates. Vince Carter played second fiddle
      to Antawn Jamison at Carolina. His numbers were OK,
      but hardly eye-popping, other than the .591 FG pct.
      his junior year. Vince gets to the pros and he's a
      superstar.

      There are other things too, but I see by the clock in
      the lower right corner of my screen that I have to get
      going now.

      Ed Weiland

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