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835Re: [APBR_analysis] Jason Williams was: A few questions

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  • Ed Weiland
    Apr 6, 2002
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      I mean the one from Duke. I looked at great PGs and
      tried to find a common thread in their college
      careers. It seems for every rule there is at least on
      exception. The most common trait seems to be a .500+
      FG %, but there's Magic who only shot .468 at MSU and
      Payton who was at .485. A high assist rate is also a
      good indicator, but John Stockton and Isiah Thomas
      had relatively average assist rates in college. At
      least compared with other PGs. One possible reason for
      that could be the slow pace the game was played at in
      pre 45-second clock days. Anyone else remember the
      four cornerzzzzzzzz offense? It's also important to
      both get to the line a lot and be able to score a lot
      of points.

      Anyway, here are some past and current PGs and some of
      their college numbers compared with Williams. The
      numbers listed are FG%, FT Attempts, assists and
      points per 40 minutes.

      Mo Cheeks .572 6.21 7.17 17.09
      Stockton .559 5.14 6.56 15.87
      I Thomas .534 6.54 6.54 17.79
      R Strickland .534 6.08 7.74 20.11
      G Grant .528 4.22 6.90 20.97
      Francis .523 6.02 5.82 22.18
      Snow .521 3.12 8.41 9.38
      Nixon .518 4.99 6.44 23.91
      A Miller .513 5.66 7.18 16.12
      Richardson .513 3.12 7.75 13.60
      B Davis .503 5.85 5.64 17.52

      C Beck .498 6.01 6.95 11.76
      Mayberry .495 3.38 6.48 17.19
      Av Johnson .494 2.29 12.98 9.95

      M Price .487 4.34 4.43 19.05
      Payton .485 4.34 8.29 19.19
      T Hardaway .484 5.84 6.30 17.75
      Brandon .484 5.81 5.79 23.23
      J Williams (Mem) .483 4.00 8.60 19.74
      Cassell .478 5.19 4.93 20.67
      D Harper .478 2.70 5.28 12.31
      K Johnson .477 5.61 5.46 17.36
      Pack .476 6.12 7.00 16.80
      K Anderson .473 5.35 7.30 24.07
      Bogues .473 2.68 8.76 11.05
      Kidd .468 6.14 10.01 17.78

      Magic .468 8.28 9.28 18.91
      Blaylock .457 3.16 6.87 19.78
      Marbury .457 4.88 4.79 20.19
      Stoudamire .457 4.74 7.23 20.17
      Best .456 4.32 6.15 18.27
      Bibby .456 4.83 6.71 19.00
      P Hardaway .456 6.02 6.48 21.80
      J Williams (Duke) .453 5.84 7.42 23.95
      Iverson .440 10.41 5.64 28.25
      Knight .416 8.00 8.43 18.51
      Van Exel .409 4.69 5.03 20.95

      I sort of cut it off here, as the list is getting long
      and there's really no one else of note. These are
      career numbers. I couldn't find any NCAA TO numbers
      for some of these guys, otherwise I would have tossed
      those into the mix. Looking at Jason Williams, he
      doesn't seem to resemble the all-time greats,
      especially in FG pct. I'm not sure he even rates with
      Francis, Baron Davis and Andre Miller from that great
      '99 PG class, but he looks pretty close. He does look
      better than Marbury and Bibby and some other recent
      ones. He gets to the line plenty, a skill that could
      keep him from meeting the same fate as Gary Grant and
      Lee Mayberry, a couple of recent college studs who
      never got it going in the NBA.

      My guess is he'll be a solid player for a long time.
      If he gets in with the right bunch of players, he
      could be a borderline all-star. On the wrong team or
      constantly injured he could become Kenny Anderson. It
      looks like a weak draft and right now Williams looks
      like the first or second pick. That and his POY, Duke
      golden boy status could label Williams as a savior for
      some franchise. That's a good thing in that he'll
      probably play a ton of minutes. It's a bad thing if
      he's stuck with bad teammates, because he doesn't seem
      to possesss the superstar qualities that can turn a
      bad franchise around. If he's expected to do such, his
      career, or at least the start of it, could be
      disappointing.

      Ed Weiland

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