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834Re: [APBR_analysis] A few questions

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  • Ed Weiland
    Apr 6, 2002
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      --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
      >
      > 2. Is there any team that can beat the Lakers in
      > the playoffs?
      > How? Hack-a-Shaq (which we haven't heard anything
      > about this year)?
      > Stop the Big Two or stop the peripheral players?
      > Are there any
      > characteristics in the wins against the Lakers
      > during the regular
      > season that are applicable to the playoffs?

      Here are some numbers from Laker losses with Shaq in
      the lineup (I only used those losses since it's
      probably safe to assume the Lakers are toast without
      the big guy):

      In losses with Shaq in the lineup here are the ppg and
      FG%:

      Kobe 23.0 .403
      Fox 5.9 .378
      Fisher 10.8 .355
      Hunter 4.7 .368
      George 4.5 .346
      Horry 7.4 .393
      Shaq 27.5 .542

      all other games:

      Kobe 26.1 .485
      Fox 8.4 .435
      Fisher 11.1 .422
      Hunter 6.2 .388
      George 4.5 .424
      Horry 6.8 .404
      Shaq 26.5 .588

      This would seem to suggest that a team would want to a
      least expend a little effort on guarding the
      peripheral guys. I also get that impression watching
      the Lakers. That players like Fisher, Fox and Horry
      will kill a team if not watched closely enough. That's
      a tall order when a team has both Shaq and Kobe to
      account for to begin with. Someone mentioned a
      defensive guy like Bowen being a key and I would agree
      with that. If a team has a Bowen that can keep Kobe in
      check, it makes everyone elses job easier. Ron Artest
      dogged Kobe pretty well in the Bulls sweep of the
      Lakers and, IIRC, Ruben Patterson handles him pretty
      well also.

      I also that teams beating the Shaq-led Lakers also
      often had someone like Brevin Knight, Dean Garrett,
      Marcus Fizer, Voshon Lenard or Ruben Patterson step
      off the bench and have a career game. That never
      hurts, but is probably something a playoff team won't
      be able to count on.
      >
      I thought the Spurs made somewhat of a statement
      against the Lakers, even though they had that same old
      gutless look about them at crunchtime of last Sunday's
      game. They blew the Lakers out in SA and the Lakers
      were lucky to get out of the Staples center with a win
      in the rematch. At the very least that has to get the
      champs thinking.

      The WC playoffs should be pretty darn good, though I
      felt the same way last year at this time. There are
      eight excellent teams, as opposed to the EC where it's
      the eight teams that don't suck as much as the rest.
      The Lakers have to be considered the favorites if Shaq
      is good to go, but I don't think it's a given that
      they're going to three-peat.

      Ed Weiland

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