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828Re: A few questions

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  • mikel_ind
    Apr 4, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:

      > 2. Is there any team that can beat the Lakers in the playoffs?
      > How?

      It all depends on Shaq's physical state, or most of it does. You
      can't count on Fisher and Kobe reaching career heights at once, again.

      I tend to a bell-shaped curve in this regard, so here is one
      breakdown of the Lakers' odds:

      10% Shaq is near full strength: Lakers cruise, again

      20% Shaq is not hitting on all cylinders: Lakers have some rough
      spots, but reach the Finals, and cruise there.

      40% Shaq misses whole games and is unable to go full speed in
      critical stretches: Lakers out in 2nd or 3rd round.

      20% Shaq is barely himself: heroics by others get Lakes to 2nd round,
      maybe.

      10% Shaq is on the shelf for the duration: Lakers win 0 or 1 game.


      The West Playoffs don't give you a break, and Shaq is used to having
      them. I give the Lakes a 30% chance, and the East representative the
      same.

      (subject to change)


      Mike Goodman
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