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599Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: nice methods

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  • Ed Weiland
    Feb 7, 2002
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      --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...>
      > wrote:
      > > >...... The Clips are better with Brand. The
      > > > Bulls are better without Brand. So how good is
      > Brand? Context
      > > > sensitive.
      > >
      > > "The Bulls are better without Brand" is only half
      > a comment.
      > >
      > > "...than they would be if they still had him"?
      > >
      > > or "...than they were when they had him"?
      > >
      > > One might imagine that 10-36 is a better mark than
      > 15-67, but the
      > > Bulls' average score is 85.7-94.4, compared to
      > 87.5-96.6 last
      > year.
      > > No significant change in the scoring.
      > >
      > > Ron Artest is suddenly a star this year. Brad
      > Miller and Marcus
      > > Fizer are suddenly serious players. Mercer and
      > Hoiberg have
      > dropped
      > > off, but Anthony has come along, with Oakley,
      > while nobody
      > > significant has been dumped.
      > >
      > > With the coaching change, I would agree "the Bulls
      > are better"; but
      > > with Brand they might actually be contending.
      >
      > Speculation. Would Fizer and Artest and Miller have
      > "suddenly"
      > improved with Brand there? (I don't think Artest is
      > a star, but
      > haven't fully looked at his numbers.) Maybe Brand
      > was a negative
      > influence, keeping down the hopes of these guys.
      > It's a plausible
      > story, if just because Brand was getting all the
      > touches.
      >
      > The only thing that is clear is that it wasn't that
      > hard to make up
      > for Brand's loss; they didn't drop to a 4 win
      > franchise and it's hard
      > to name any 15 win team that got worse by losing its
      > "best player".

      The Bulls appeared to be headed toward 10-12 wins tops
      early in the season. Then two things improved the team
      dramatically. Bill Cartwright took over as coach and
      Ron Artest returned.

      Under Bill they're 7-13 with a 89.8-93.2 point diff.
      Hardly a threat to the Lakers (even though they swept
      that season series. Figure those odds), but definitely
      out of the stinkhole. Artest has played like a star. I
      wouldn't go so far as to call him a star just yet. He
      plays in such a frenzied style that he can be
      extremely erratic. I suspect he has a serious slump in
      him before the season ends.

      As for Brand, there's little doubt in my mind that
      this would be a team on the fringes of the EC playoffs
      had Brand stuck around. That said, I have to say that
      I do like the deal the Bulls made. A solid, usable PF
      is something that's pretty easy to find. Not one of
      Brand's calibre, but one that a team can get by with.
      Tyson Chandler has a chance to be a special player. It
      may take another year or two, but the talent is
      obvious. I've don't think I've ever seen a player this
      tall who was as athletic.

      Ed Weiland

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