5188RE: [APBR_analysis] Fouls & Minutes per Game (Gadzuric)
- Nov 1 9:56 PM-----Original Message-----
From: sultanoswat@... [mailto:sultanoswat@...]
Sent: Monday, November 01, 2004 9:05 PM
>I noticed that Gadzuric has a very high PF/MIN (7.1PF/48min), and^^^^
>A. How many minutes per game can he average?
>B. Can he lower that rate & by how much?
>To do some a quick (and nowhere near complete) study, I looked at
>high PF/MIN last year, and the highest MIN/G they had over their
>career:If you want to come up with some sort of prediction for Gadzuric, then
instead of looking at players with high PF/min THIS year, you want to
look at players from PAST years who had high PF/min, and who were similar
in some way to Gadzuric (young centers with similar stats) -- and then
look to see what subsequently happened to their PF/min and Min/G stats.
Many of the players on your list are either players who are new, so
we don't know how their career Min/G will play out (Mihm), or they
are old players who may not be comparable to Gadzuric (Traylor,
although for all I know maybe he is comparable).
My guess is that the majority of these high PF/Min players never do
become big-minutes players. There are undoubtedly some exceptions,
ones who became either better players or learned to reduce their
foulling or most likely both. How to decide whether a player such
as Gadzuric is in that category or not is I suspect not an easy task.
Anyone who can make the prediction reliably should get hired as an
assistant GM or player personnel director.
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