- Jul 10, 2004
> A couple things...

Despite having taken several years of calc so far, Ive actually never

>

> 1. The band getting narrower with more poss simply expresses that you

> have more variance with fewer attempts, which is what statistically

> should happen. Variance of efficiency is theoretically inversely

> proportional to how many possessions you take.

>

> 2. In Basketball on Paper, I generate functions that show how

> players' efficiencies vary with possession percentage (percentage of

> the team's possessions, with an average of 1 out of 5 or 20%). It's

> one of the most useful things I do. It suggests whether a player can

> use more possessions and still be efficient. It suggests how to

> optimize an offense. It says why Allen Iverson is valuable even if he

> is inefficient. You should take a look at that -- Chapter 19. (I

> know, the axes are backwards on my plots. It's a relic of how I had

> to originally generate them years ago.)

>

> 3. You are definitely right in your theory that efficiency should go

> down with poss used. Part of that theory should also incorporate how

> good teammates are. That's the tough one to work with...

>

> DeanO

taken stats, in highschool or college, so unfortunately all I have is

what I can explain logically to myself, I can't compute the other

stuff. I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of most things

conceptually, but when it comes to things like variance etc, I dont

actually know how to find it. That said...

In response to 1, this is OP/M as opposed to OP. Unless I

misunderstand something, the narrowing of the band is not due to

variance in OP/M, as a low number of OP over an even lower number of

minutes can still produce a high OP/M number, and yet the variance is

only shown to the left of the graph, and not to the right.

2. Yes, there is a subtle difference between % of team OP and OP/M, as

you could probably argue that all of the players on a team like Dallas

are "unfairly" getting a boost to their OP/M, but on the other hand

using % of OP of total OP would "unfairly" reward players on slow

tempo/defensive type teams, like say Rip on Detroit. I dont remember

if I ever got to chapter 19, I put it down at some point and decided I

wanted to know more about computing statistics to be able to look over

the formulas myself before reading further. I might go back and look

it over now :)

3. Yes, but I believe the effects of playing with offensively good

teammates is overstated a bit. Part of that effect overlaps with the

OP/M effect. Good offensive teams have many offensive players, which

means any given player is more likely to have a lower OP/M than he

would on an average team, thereby indirectly raising his OE. The

converse is also true, where bad offensive teams usually have very few

good offensive players and a player's OP/M will likely be higher (See

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