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4477Re: Offensive efficiency as a function of offensive possessions per minute

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  • Torch742
    Jul 10, 2004
      > A couple things...
      >
      > 1. The band getting narrower with more poss simply expresses that you
      > have more variance with fewer attempts, which is what statistically
      > should happen. Variance of efficiency is theoretically inversely
      > proportional to how many possessions you take.
      >
      > 2. In Basketball on Paper, I generate functions that show how
      > players' efficiencies vary with possession percentage (percentage of
      > the team's possessions, with an average of 1 out of 5 or 20%). It's
      > one of the most useful things I do. It suggests whether a player can
      > use more possessions and still be efficient. It suggests how to
      > optimize an offense. It says why Allen Iverson is valuable even if he
      > is inefficient. You should take a look at that -- Chapter 19. (I
      > know, the axes are backwards on my plots. It's a relic of how I had
      > to originally generate them years ago.)
      >
      > 3. You are definitely right in your theory that efficiency should go
      > down with poss used. Part of that theory should also incorporate how
      > good teammates are. That's the tough one to work with...
      >
      > DeanO

      Despite having taken several years of calc so far, Ive actually never
      taken stats, in highschool or college, so unfortunately all I have is
      what I can explain logically to myself, I can't compute the other
      stuff. I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of most things
      conceptually, but when it comes to things like variance etc, I dont
      actually know how to find it. That said...

      In response to 1, this is OP/M as opposed to OP. Unless I
      misunderstand something, the narrowing of the band is not due to
      variance in OP/M, as a low number of OP over an even lower number of
      minutes can still produce a high OP/M number, and yet the variance is
      only shown to the left of the graph, and not to the right.

      2. Yes, there is a subtle difference between % of team OP and OP/M, as
      you could probably argue that all of the players on a team like Dallas
      are "unfairly" getting a boost to their OP/M, but on the other hand
      using % of OP of total OP would "unfairly" reward players on slow
      tempo/defensive type teams, like say Rip on Detroit. I dont remember
      if I ever got to chapter 19, I put it down at some point and decided I
      wanted to know more about computing statistics to be able to look over
      the formulas myself before reading further. I might go back and look
      it over now :)

      3. Yes, but I believe the effects of playing with offensively good
      teammates is overstated a bit. Part of that effect overlaps with the
      OP/M effect. Good offensive teams have many offensive players, which
      means any given player is more likely to have a lower OP/M than he
      would on an average team, thereby indirectly raising his OE. The
      converse is also true, where bad offensive teams usually have very few
      good offensive players and a player's OP/M will likely be higher (See
      McGrady, Orlando).
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