Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

## 4477Re: Offensive efficiency as a function of offensive possessions per minute

Expand Messages
• Jul 10, 2004
> A couple things...
>
> 1. The band getting narrower with more poss simply expresses that you
> have more variance with fewer attempts, which is what statistically
> should happen. Variance of efficiency is theoretically inversely
> proportional to how many possessions you take.
>
> 2. In Basketball on Paper, I generate functions that show how
> players' efficiencies vary with possession percentage (percentage of
> the team's possessions, with an average of 1 out of 5 or 20%). It's
> one of the most useful things I do. It suggests whether a player can
> use more possessions and still be efficient. It suggests how to
> optimize an offense. It says why Allen Iverson is valuable even if he
> is inefficient. You should take a look at that -- Chapter 19. (I
> know, the axes are backwards on my plots. It's a relic of how I had
> to originally generate them years ago.)
>
> 3. You are definitely right in your theory that efficiency should go
> down with poss used. Part of that theory should also incorporate how
> good teammates are. That's the tough one to work with...
>
> DeanO

Despite having taken several years of calc so far, Ive actually never
taken stats, in highschool or college, so unfortunately all I have is
what I can explain logically to myself, I can't compute the other
stuff. I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of most things
conceptually, but when it comes to things like variance etc, I dont
actually know how to find it. That said...

In response to 1, this is OP/M as opposed to OP. Unless I
misunderstand something, the narrowing of the band is not due to
variance in OP/M, as a low number of OP over an even lower number of
minutes can still produce a high OP/M number, and yet the variance is
only shown to the left of the graph, and not to the right.

2. Yes, there is a subtle difference between % of team OP and OP/M, as
you could probably argue that all of the players on a team like Dallas
are "unfairly" getting a boost to their OP/M, but on the other hand
using % of OP of total OP would "unfairly" reward players on slow
tempo/defensive type teams, like say Rip on Detroit. I dont remember
if I ever got to chapter 19, I put it down at some point and decided I
wanted to know more about computing statistics to be able to look over
the formulas myself before reading further. I might go back and look
it over now :)

3. Yes, but I believe the effects of playing with offensively good
teammates is overstated a bit. Part of that effect overlaps with the
OP/M effect. Good offensive teams have many offensive players, which
means any given player is more likely to have a lower OP/M than he
would on an average team, thereby indirectly raising his OE. The
converse is also true, where bad offensive teams usually have very few
good offensive players and a player's OP/M will likely be higher (See