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4457Re: Early FA signings

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  • mrintp2000
    Jul 5, 2004
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      --- Interesting, thanks

      In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
      > > I'd really like to get a handle on when guys peak and start to
      > > decline. It seems that things start going downhill rapidly after 30
      > > but I don't have any data to support that.
      >
      > In Nash's specific case, I have these five guys rated as his most
      > comparable players at age 30 (and the only guys I rate particularly
      > similar):
      >
      > John Stockton
      > John Lucas
      > Terrell Brandon
      > Brad Davis
      > Mark Price
      >
      > Stockton, of course, played forever. Lucas lasted until 36, but his
      > last year as a regular was at 34, and his last productive year the
      > season before (although I don't think cocaine is a big worry in
      > Nash's case). Brandon's last year came the next year, at 31, because
      > of his leg injury. Davis played through 36, but his last really
      > productive season was 34 (although he and Lucas weren't as good as
      > Nash in the first place). Price, who I subjectively think might be
      > the best comparison, was a regular through his retirement at age 34,
      > but had one year where injuries (can't remember what) limited him to
      > seven games.
      >
      > If you look at the three guys who made it through the course of
      > Nash's new contract, their average minutes played went:
      >
      > 30: 2260
      > 31: 1868
      > 32: 2190
      > 33: 1873
      > 34: 1991
      > 35: 1721
      > 36: 1075
      >
      > And their efficiency, adjusted for league average went:
      >
      > 30: 120.0
      > 31: 115.3
      > 32: 115.6
      > 33: 117.0
      > 34: 115.5
      > 35: 111.1
      > 36: 103.1
      >
      > Read into that what you will.
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