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  • Dean Oliver
    May 30, 2004
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
      <edkupfer@r...> wrote:
      > >> I'm not quite sure what endogenous means. If it means being

      I should note that, not being an economist, I like throwing this word
      around without as great an appreciation or understanding for it as I

      > You'll have to help me out here, as I don't know anything about
      > data. Do you mean include Days^2 in addition to Days or instead of
      Days? I
      > did both, and here's how they turned out:

      Include both, which you did in the first set below. Looks like it got
      you significant on both days and days^2. And the signs are as
      expected. It suggests optimal rest at about 3 days, longer than the 2
      days we saw before. (Potentially important for the talk about rust vs
      rest, esp if the Lakers wrap up on M.) Let me also ask -- is Days = 0
      if a team plays back to back nights or is that Days = 1?

      I'm sure there are other ways to manipulate things, but this looks
      like a pretty good thing. I'm saving it.

      Home is a binary 1/0 indicator for home/road, resp?

      > PtsDiff = - 21.2 + 2.59 Days +0.000021 Dist + 5.59 Home + 30.0
      MatchupP -
      > 0.394 Days_2
      > Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
      > Constant -21.169 1.195 -17.71 0.000
      > Days 2.5924 0.7956 3.26 0.001
      > Dist 0.0000214 0.0003555 0.06 0.952
      > Home 5.5937 0.4858 11.51 0.000
      > MatchupP 29.991 1.134 26.45 0.000
      > Days_2 -0.3938 0.1350 -2.92 0.004


      Dean Oliver
      Author, Basketball on Paper
      "Dean Oliver looks at basketball with a fresh perspective. If you
      want a new way to analyze the game, this book is for you. You'll
      never watch a game the same way again. We use his stuff and it helps
      us." Yvan Kelly, Scout, Seattle Sonics
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