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375Re: The 3-point shot

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  • HoopStudies
    Dec 31, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...> wrote:
      > In doing some of my own evaluations of players over different eras,
      > I've run into something of snag: how to compare the relative values
      > of similar players where only one of the two players can hit the 3-
      > point shot. For example take Reggie Miller 99-00 and Rolando
      > Blackman 87-88 for example:
      > player GP FGM/FGA FG% FTM/FTA FT% Reb Ast St Bl TO Pts PPG
      > R.Miller 81 466/1041 44.8 373/406 91.9 239 187 85 25 129 1470 18.1
      > Blackman 71 497/1050 47.3 331/379 87.3 246 262 64 18 144 1325 18.7

      Good pick on similarity. I get a similarity score of 790 for them,
      or 890 without looking at 3ptrs.

      I don't have a great answer to your question, but I can post my
      calculations for these two:

      Player Sc.Poss Poss. Floor% ORtg PtsProduced
      Miller 587 1157 0.507 118.0 1365
      Blackman 613 1116 0.549 112.9 1260

      Miller scored on a smaller percentage of his possessions, but his
      points produced per 100 possessions was higher. Miller played at a
      time when points were harder to come by, meaning his offensive rating
      was higher than the average by more than Blackman's. Miller scored a
      higher percentage of points on a team that won slightly more. His
      team also went to the Finals, though that's outside your numbers.

      You're not even looking at defense here, but they are similar there,
      too. Indiana was a better defensive team on an absolute scale, about
      the same on a relative scale. Most of my analyses point to Reggie
      contributing slightly more net points, slightly more net wins.

      Finally, both Derek Harper and Mark Aguirre made a lot of 3's for
      that Dallas team. Not sure how that helps you...

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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