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370Re: Elton Brand, revisited

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  • HoopStudies
    Dec 26, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
      > A few months ago, the Elton Brand trade (giveaway) brought some
      > speculation on this board. As I recall, some here believed Brand's
      > fine production with the Bulls would be diminished in the forward-
      > heavy Western Conference.

      Using methods from the Iverson thing before, Brand added 2.4 net
      pts/48 minutes last year with the Bulls. The Clippers looked like
      this:

      Odom, Lamar 2.5
      McInnis, Jeff 0.2
      Piatkowski, Eric -0.1
      Maggette, Corey 2.8
      Miles, Darius -1.2
      Olowokandi, Michael -3.1
      Richardson, Quentin 0.9
      Nesby, Tyrone -3.3
      Boykins, Earl 1.8
      Dooling, Keyon -0.9
      Rooks, Sean -2.5
      Parks, Cherokee -2.5
      Strong, Derek -4.5
      Skinner, Brian -3.3
      Hamilton, Zendon -1.4

      This year, things look this way:

      . 2001 Numbers 2002 Numbers
      Player Net/48 Min/G Net/48 Min/G
      Brand, Elton 2.4 0 5.8 36.8
      Odom, Lamar 2.5 37.3 -0.1 34.1
      McInnis, Jeff 0.2 35.0 -0.4 36.7
      Piatkowski, Eric -0.1 26.6 -1.0 37.1
      Maggette, Corey 2.8 19.7 0.3 24.9
      Miles, Darius -1.2 26.3 -0.6 23.9
      Olowokandi, Michael -3.1 25.9 -3.2 26
      Richardson, Quentin 0.9 17.9 3.2 26.3
      Nesby, Tyrone -3.3 23.8 #N/A #N/A
      Boykins, Earl 1.8 14.9 1.6 11.5
      Dooling, Keyon -0.9 16.2 -1.6 13.6
      Rooks, Sean -2.5 18.9 -3.5 11.5
      Parks, Cherokee -2.5 16.8 #N/A #N/A
      Strong, Derek -4.5 17.5 #N/A #N/A
      Skinner, Brian -3.3 14.9 #N/A #N/A
      Hamilton, Zendon -1.4 6.3 #N/A #N/A
      Jamison, Harold #N/A #N/A -4.1 5
      Ekezie, Obinna #N/A #N/A -5.3 4.9


      Brand has played better. Despite the tougher West, I guess he is
      also now 22 years old and getting better. Brand averaged +3.4 net
      pts/game rookie year, which was better than his soph season -- an
      unusual pattern. (Odom also just turned 22, so why hasn't he gotten
      better? Drugs, perhaps? Maybe it's a blip downward, like Brand's
      second season. Maggette's numbers -- he also just turned 22 -- have
      also fallen a little, though I don't think they are statistically
      significant.)

      Olowokandi is still bad. Miles will get better. Richardson's boost
      in productivity is because he is hitting 3's at a much greater rate
      than last year (49/102 this year vs. 50/151 all last year) - that
      can't last forever.

      Overall, the Clippers had a 100 offensive rating and 103 defensive
      rating last year. This year, they are at 103 and 100 -- they've
      flipped things around (and the numbers do translate to the 15-11
      record they had as of 12/22).

      Forecasting the future is always going to be subject to drug trials,
      injuries, coaching decisions, choke-holds, and just plain
      randomness. I did look at Brand's 2001 season and find players with
      similar seasons. These are the most similar:

      Player Team Season SimScore
      baker,vin mil 1997 916
      Roundfield,Dan Atl 1982 916
      coleman,derrick njn 1991 915
      Lucas,Maurice Por 1979 898
      mcdyess,antonio den 2001 897
      baker,vin mil 1996 890
      Carroll,Joe GSW 1981 886
      duncan,tim san 1999a 885
      smith,charles lac 1991 884
      McDyess,Antonio den 2000 883
      Roundfield,Dan Atl 1980 883
      Hayes,Elvin Was 1979 882
      baker,vin mil 1995 882
      kemp,shawn sea 1993 882
      Hayes,Elvin Was 1978 881

      Definitely guys who stuck around for a while, but with mixed
      success. Coleman is a particularly good match because of age. I'm
      still working on the system to develop career similarity scores (some
      tough issues due to lack of some indiv stats).

      > The issue of All-Stars (or MVPs) being named from bad teams (they
      > never are), is another one that doesn't go away by ignoring such
      > players. It is now clear that Elton Brand at least kept the Bulls
      in
      > most of their games, whereas without him, they could just fold the
      > franchise without much effect on the league.

      I had Brand contributing 6 of the Bulls 15 wins last year. That puts
      them pretty close to the record low 9 win season, assuming that the
      newcomers contribute nothing, which is what they're doing.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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