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3696Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)

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  • igor eduardo küpfer
    Apr 7, 2004
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      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "Mike G" <msg_53@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 2004 8:44 AM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)


      <snip>
      >
      > I also corrected for what might be considered a "bias" in a manley-
      > type production figure: the NBA has overall been
      > losing "productivity", on a per-game basis. Thus, all 30-year-olds
      > have been around long enough to see a significant decrease in
      > production, among all players.
      >
      > My figures show a per-game/per-team high around 144 in the mid-'80s,
      > which has since dropped to about 125. Not sure of the manley
      > formula Ed used, but I'm applying one equally to teams and
      > individuals; using a formula like the one BobC layed out.
      >

      I used a no-coefficient MC formula. I don't think it will make much
      difference.

      > Briefly, I see an average change based on age that looks like this:
      >
      > %inc is average increase (decrease if negative) of the age group
      > that went on to play the next year, in "manley credits".
      >

      [...]
      >
      > For 519 players age 29 who went on to play in their 30th year, an
      > average loss of 9.4% has occurred.
      >
      Breaking down into statistical categories, here's what I have for
      30-year-olds:

      Poss -.066
      2% .005
      eFG% .007
      FT% .002
      OR% -.014
      DR% -.023
      AST -.011
      BLK -.065
      TO -.018

      Possessions are down 6.6%, accounting for much of the Manley Credits
      decrease. (I'm using medians for the numbers above.) Shooting percentages,
      however, are largely unchanged. The other stats have a lot of noise. My web
      page has all this in graphical form:

      http://members.rogers.com/edkupfer/images/effects_of_aging.htm


      --

      ed
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