3696Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)
- Apr 7, 2004
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike G" <msg_53@...>
Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 2004 8:44 AM
Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)
> I also corrected for what might be considered a "bias" in a manley-
> type production figure: the NBA has overall been
> losing "productivity", on a per-game basis. Thus, all 30-year-olds
> have been around long enough to see a significant decrease in
> production, among all players.
> My figures show a per-game/per-team high around 144 in the mid-'80s,
> which has since dropped to about 125. Not sure of the manley
> formula Ed used, but I'm applying one equally to teams and
> individuals; using a formula like the one BobC layed out.
I used a no-coefficient MC formula. I don't think it will make much
> Briefly, I see an average change based on age that looks like this:
> %inc is average increase (decrease if negative) of the age group
> that went on to play the next year, in "manley credits".
> For 519 players age 29 who went on to play in their 30th year, an
> average loss of 9.4% has occurred.
Breaking down into statistical categories, here's what I have for
Possessions are down 6.6%, accounting for much of the Manley Credits
decrease. (I'm using medians for the numbers above.) Shooting percentages,
however, are largely unchanged. The other stats have a lot of noise. My web
page has all this in graphical form:
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