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3691RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)

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  • Michael Tamada
    Apr 6, 2004
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: igor eduardo küpfer [mailto:edkupfer@...]
      Sent: Tuesday, April 06, 2004 9:17 AM

      From: "Mike G" <msg_53@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>

      >> Maybe the data that shows "most players" have peaked before age 28
      >> are biased by the effect that marginal players are peaking at age
      >> 23 -- and out of the league by age 27.
      >> Meanwhile, average players may peak at age 25, done by 29. (Numbers
      >> off the top of my head)
      >I looked at peak Manley Credit performances for 54 All-NBA players. I
      >plotted the aging curve here:
      >The decline after age 30 is precipitous. Only 14 of 48 (29%) 31-year-olds
      >maintained their 30-year-old performances.

      Nice, it could be part of a "basketballgraphs.com" website, a counterpart
      to "baseballgraphs.com". However it looks like your aging curve is based
      on all the plotted points? I think it'd be better to instead plot 54
      separate aging curves, and take the average of them ... wait no that would
      lead to the same result that you already got. I guess what I mean is this:
      if we're looking at a 29 year old Dampier or whoever, and trying to predict
      what his age 30, 31, etc. stats will look like, then we don't want to look
      at the overall average for 30-year olds (or 30-year old all-NBAers, or
      whatever group). Instead we'd want to look at what the typical *change
      in performance* is for a 30-year old, compared to what he did as a 29-year
      old. And then correcting for the things that MikeG mentioned: big players may
      "age more slowly"; star players may also. Also, players who rely on quickness
      or jumping ability may have more problems when they hit 30. Players who rely
      on outside shooting are an interesting conundrum: their bread-and-butter
      techniques can keep them playing into their late 30s or even 40s (Dale Ellis,
      Steve Kerr, etc.). But on the other hand, an inside-oriented player who
      starts getting old has the potential to change his game and increase the
      dimensions of his offense, specifically by developing an outside shot -- and
      can thus prolong his career or slow down his decline. Jordan and Erving
      certainly did this; dunking less and shooting outside more as they got older.
      I think Karl Malone did too, at least I don't remember him taking as many
      outside shots in his younger days.

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