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3687RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)

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  • Michael Tamada
    Apr 6, 2004
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: igor eduardo küpfer [mailto:edkupfer@...]
      Sent: Tuesday, April 06, 2004 8:20 PM

      >> Clarifying: so the averages that we'd plot would be based on a player's
      >CHANGE
      >> from the year before, rather than averages of their level at that year.
      >>
      >
      >Okay, I uploaded another graph, this time plotting Manley Credits in terms
      >of percent change from the previous season.
      >
      >http://members.rogers.com/edkupfer/images/peakperformance.htm
      >
      >Note: I've changed the Manley Credit stats from season totals to per game
      >averages.

      Interesting differences in the graphs; the first one suggested a peak at age 26
      then a strange final peak at age 30 followed by steep declines. The second
      and third graphs, which I believe to be the better ones, suggest a peak at ages
      26 and 27 (age 27 averaging 100% of the age 26 performance) followed by 3 almost
      flat years and then a substantial decline after age 30.

      BobC's numbers seems to be based more on seasons in the league rather than age, but
      seem to point to peaks at age 24-25 and declines starting around 29-30, so a year
      or two earlier. But he was looking at a broader set of players than the All-NBAers,
      and it wouldn't surprise me if MikeG is right that the star players have later peaks
      or at least delayed precipitous declines, relative to the kinds of players who are
      washed up at age 31.

      >BTW Mike, I didn't get the post you quote above. Did I miss anything good?

      It was mainly just elaboration and explanation of the points that you did see. I
      think the fragment that you saw contains the core concepts. I'll forward the post
      to you, in case it still hasn't arrived at your mail server.


      --MKT
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