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3685Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)

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  • igor eduardo küpfer
    Apr 6, 2004
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      --

      ed
      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "Michael Tamada" <tamada@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, April 06, 2004 5:45 PM
      Subject: RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dampier (was Article from _The Economist_)


      > -----Original Message-----
      > From: Michael Tamada
      > Sent: Tuesday, April 06, 2004 2:09 PM
      >
      > [...]
      >
      > >Nice, it could be part of a "basketballgraphs.com" website, a counterpart
      > >to "baseballgraphs.com". However it looks like your aging curve is based
      > >on all the plotted points? I think it'd be better to instead plot 54
      > >separate aging curves, and take the average of them ... wait no that
      would
      > >lead to the same result that you already got. I guess what I mean is
      this:
      >
      > [...]
      >
      > >whatever group). Instead we'd want to look at what the typical *change
      > >in performance* is for a 30-year old, compared to what he did as a
      29-year
      > >old. And then correcting for the things that MikeG mentioned: big
      players may
      >
      > Clarifying: so the averages that we'd plot would be based on a player's
      CHANGE
      > from the year before, rather than averages of their level at that year.
      >

      Okay, I uploaded another graph, this time plotting Manley Credits in terms
      of percent change from the previous season.

      http://members.rogers.com/edkupfer/images/peakperformance.htm

      Note: I've changed the Manley Credit stats from season totals to per game
      averages.


      > >Steve Kerr, etc.). But on the other hand, an inside-oriented player who
      > >starts getting old has the potential to change his game and increase the
      > >dimensions of his offense, specifically by developing an outside shot --
      and
      > >can thus prolong his career or slow down his decline. Jordan and Erving
      > >certainly did this; dunking less and shooting outside more as they got
      older.
      > >I think Karl Malone did too, at least I don't remember him taking as many
      > >outside shots in his younger days.
      >
      > I forgot to mention also how players such as Jack Sikma and Kevin McChale
      > started adding 3-pointers to their offensive reportoires in their later
      years.
      > Oh, and Sam Perkins. And other players such as Terry Cummings and Ron
      Harper
      > seem to extend their careers by stopping from shooting period, and just
      becoming
      > defensive role players.
      >

      There is definitely a limit to my approach here -- Manley Credits is a good
      approximation of total contributions, but it doesn't really tell us about
      changes in playing style or effectiveness in different facets of the game.
      If I have time, I'll try to put together more graphs, focusing on
      rebounding, shooting accuracy, etc.

      BTW Mike, I didn't get the post you quote above. Did I miss anything good?

      ed
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