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3661Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Article from _The Economist_; yes it's about basketb...

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    Apr 4, 2004
      Dampier had 2 straight 20-rebound games, and a recent rebounding tear that coincided with an 8-1 streak by the team. He's ended his season as he started it, with a relative lull in the middle.  Is it a fluke season because he's 29 and should be peaking?

      i kind of touched on this in posting 3646...

      What should define a Fluke Season? 

      IMHO one that is out of character of a defined pattern of play - meaning someone who has played a number of seasons (at least 3-5), having played substantial minutes (1000, maybe less, per season), whose performance has "leveled" out, meaning not necessarily peaked but a certain level or pattern of production has been established, and then drastically improves or gets worse (gets worse without injury)...

      A subsequent season that is not as strong?  Or a next-season that is a reversion to his career average?

      I'm curious what people would care to predict about whether these players are having Fluke Seasons.  We might define it as whether next year they've reverted more than halfway back to their career norms.

      Lamar Odom

      no, his season now is very much similar to his 00-01 clipper season...

      Brian Cardinal

      no, has no previous "record" of any substantial playing time...

      Raja Bell

      no - only his 3rd season playing any kind of substantial minutes...

      Erick Dampier

      yes - see posting 3646...

      Donyell Marshall

      no - pretty much the same player he's been the last 3 seasons...

      Jim Jackson

      no - he's had better seasons, this one now is statistically almost identical to his 01-02 season with the heat, but i never would have suspected him being a really good defensive as 82games.com shows...

      Antonio Daniels

      possibly - see posting 3152...

      Joe Johnson

      no - only his 4th season in the league...

      Fred Hoiberg

      no - see posting 3370...

      Sam Cassell

      no - he's been a model of consistency for a number of years, and has been playing just slightly better these past two seasons...

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...

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