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3632Re: Game State Matrix?

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  • Dean Oliver
    Apr 1, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, sultanoswat@y... wrote:
      > I'm a bit confused by the "Game State Matrix" (.pdf) in the files
      > section. Shouldn't the HomeWin%(lead0) = 1 - RoadWin%(lead0)? If the
      > lead is 0 the game is tied and it's the same event, so one should be
      > the opposite odds as the other.
      > It looks like the first line for RoadWin% is messed up, especially
      > near closer to the left side.

      Uh, yeah, that was a typo or space alien hijacking my computer. I
      honestly don't know what happened, but that first line was screwed up
      and I don't know how. I've replaced it. Stupid space aliens.

      Dean Oliver
      Author, Basketball on Paper
      "There are a lot of math guys who just rush from the numbers to the
      conclusion. . .they'll tell you that Shaq is a real good player but
      his team would win a couple more games a year if he could hit a free
      throw. Dean is more than that; he's really struggling to understand
      the actual problem, rather than the statistical after-image of it. I
      learn a lot by reading him." Bill James, author Baseball Abstract
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