Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

3278Re: [APBR_analysis] My version of WINVAL (my analysis of it)

Expand Messages
  • igor eduardo küpfer
    Feb 25, 2004
    • 0 Attachment
      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "Dean Oliver" <deano@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2004 11:41 AM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: My version of WINVAL (my analysis of it)

      <snipping>


      > (continuing from my previous message on different points)
      >
      ....
      > 3. I'll echo Ed's plea to consider pace as it does have some impact.
      > I'm not sure it's all that big with what you're doing, but I'm not
      > sure it's small either.
      >

      I think it's pretty small.

      > 4. I believe WINVAL had Scottie Pippen as the 2nd best player last
      > year. That is closer to your WV2. It's amazing to me how much
      > weighting by clutch time matters in your system, which makes me
      > reconsider whether it is a good measure. Perhaps it exaggerates a
      > bit.

      With the 82games data, can't we just get a probability of winning in
      situation x, and assign a weight based on that? For example, if teams in the
      past have come back from 10 down with 3 minutes left 10% of the time, why
      not weight the "clutchiness" of the situation based on that?

      > 5. What is the R2 for your estimates of wv1 and wv2?

      r2 = .776

      Biggest differences between WV1 and WV2:

      Jeff McInnis + 7.3
      Danny Ferry + 6.3
      Kevin Willis + 5.4
      Marcus Fizer + 5.1
      DeShawn Stevenson + 5.1
      Laphonso Ellis + 4.6
      Zydrunas Ilgauskas + 4.5
      Lonny Baxter + 4.4
      Alan Henderson + 4.4
      J.R. Bremer + 4.1

      Fred Hoiberg - 4.2
      Melvin Ely - 4.3
      Earl Watson - 4.5
      John Stockton - 4.7
      Chris Jefferies - 5.0
      Darvin Ham - 5.6
      Dirk Nowitzki - 5.7
      Juan Dixon - 5.7
      Dale Davis - 6.3
      Arvydas Sabonis - 8.6


      ed
    • Show all 30 messages in this topic