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3271Re: My version of WINVAL

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  • dan_t_rosenbaum
    Feb 24, 2004
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      > What is your definition of crunch and garbage?

      Here is my exact code. Clock measures the minutes elapsed in the
      game at the beginning of the observation. Three minutes left in the
      game (in regulation or in overtime) is counted as 45. Margin is the
      absolute value of the difference in scores at the beginning of the
      observation.

      ptime=max(0,(clock-36)/12);
      marg10=10-ptime*7;
      wgt=10*(1+ptime)*max(0,min(1,(1-(margin/marg10-1))));

      Basically, in the first three quarters, full weight is given to any
      part of a game where the margin is less than 10 and no weight is
      given if it is more than 20. Between 10 and 20, the weight is
      phased from full to zero.

      This is basically what happens in the fourth quarter as well, except
      that I decrease the margin from 10 (20) to 3 (6) from the beginning
      to the end of the fourth quarter. Also, ceterus paribus, the end of
      the quarter counts more than the beginning of the quarter.

      At the end of all of this, I renormalize the weights so that on
      average minutes in the fourth quarter count the same as those in the
      first three quarters.

      > Is there a pace adjustment in there that I can't see? If not, I
      think a few players would benefit: a quick calculation shows that
      among your top 48, McGrady, Boykins, and Ilgauskas all gain from
      playing fast paced teams, while Francis, Mike James, and Billups pay
      for playing on slow paced teams.

      No, there is no pace adjustment in here. This could be added, but
      there seem to be some bugs in the possessions variables that would
      be the ideal way to adjust for this, so in this pass I ignored this
      issue.

      > ed

      Thanks Ed.

      Best wishes,
      Dan
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