## 3271Re: My version of WINVAL

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• Feb 24, 2004
> What is your definition of crunch and garbage?

Here is my exact code. Clock measures the minutes elapsed in the
game at the beginning of the observation. Three minutes left in the
game (in regulation or in overtime) is counted as 45. Margin is the
absolute value of the difference in scores at the beginning of the
observation.

ptime=max(0,(clock-36)/12);
marg10=10-ptime*7;
wgt=10*(1+ptime)*max(0,min(1,(1-(margin/marg10-1))));

Basically, in the first three quarters, full weight is given to any
part of a game where the margin is less than 10 and no weight is
given if it is more than 20. Between 10 and 20, the weight is
phased from full to zero.

This is basically what happens in the fourth quarter as well, except
that I decrease the margin from 10 (20) to 3 (6) from the beginning
to the end of the fourth quarter. Also, ceterus paribus, the end of
the quarter counts more than the beginning of the quarter.

At the end of all of this, I renormalize the weights so that on
average minutes in the fourth quarter count the same as those in the
first three quarters.

> Is there a pace adjustment in there that I can't see? If not, I
think a few players would benefit: a quick calculation shows that
playing fast paced teams, while Francis, Mike James, and Billups pay
for playing on slow paced teams.

No, there is no pace adjustment in here. This could be added, but
there seem to be some bugs in the possessions variables that would
be the ideal way to adjust for this, so in this pass I ignored this
issue.

> ed

Thanks Ed.

Best wishes,
Dan
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