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3269Re: [APBR_analysis] My version of WINVAL

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  • igor eduardo küpfer
    Feb 24, 2004
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      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "dan_t_rosenbaum" <rosenbaum@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, February 24, 2004 7:19 PM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] My version of WINVAL


      <snipping throughout>

      >
      > (1.1) MARGIN = B0 + B1*X1 + B2*X2 + ... + BK*XK + U, where
      >
      > MARGIN = home team points - away team points
      >
      > (MARGIN is measured during the period of time over which there is no
      > substitution made. This MARGIN is normalized so that is measures
      > the point difference per 40 minutes.)
      >
      > X1 = 1 if player 1 is playing at home
      > __ = -1 if player 1 is playing away
      > __ = 0 if player 1 is not playing
      > XK = 1 if player K is playing at home
      > __ = -1 if player K is playing away
      > __ = 0 if player K is not playing
      >
      > U = i.i.d. error term
      >
      > B0 = measures average home court advantage across all teams
      > B1 = measures the difference between player 1 and the omitted players
      > BK = measures the difference between player K and the omitted players
      >
      ...
      >
      > Observations are weighted by the number of seconds of the particular
      > observation to get my first estimate (WV1). I also report a second
      > adjusted plus/minus estimate (WV2) that adds more weight during
      > crunch time and less weight during garbage time.
      >

      What is your definition of crunch and garbage?

      > For comparison purposes, I also report the results for an index that
      > is normalized to have the same mean and standard deviation as WV1
      > and WV2 (WV2 is normalized to be the same as WV1). This index
      > (before normalization) is the following.
      >
      > INDEX40 = [40/MIN] * [2*(ST-TO) + 1.5*(PTS+AS+BK) + 1*(RB-FGA-PF) -
      > 0.44*FTA]
      >
      > Here are the results that I get from this process.
      >
      > http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/NBA/wv1.lst~
      >

      Is there a pace adjustment in there that I can't see? If not, I think a few
      players would benefit: a quick calculation shows that among your top 48,
      McGrady, Boykins, and Ilgauskas all gain from playing fast paced teams,
      while Francis, Mike James, and Billups pay for playing on slow paced teams.

      ed
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