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32Re: Kidd v. KJ and comparing eras

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  • Dean Oliver
    Mar 8, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., harlanzo@y... wrote:
      > I see things on the site have slowed down of late so I thought I

      I've personally had to work on other basketball tasks as well as real
      work.

      >
      > My friend swears that Jason Kidd is a better player than Kevin
      > Johnson ever was. Now my intial reaction was, based solely upon my
      > memory of the two players in action, was that I prefer KJ. I
      thought
      > he could shoot and finish and while not as good a passer as Kidd,
      he
      > definitely was more than adequate in that department.
      >

      Opinion first -- KJ was generally a better offensive weapon because
      he could score. He wasn't as good a passer. Kidd has always been a
      good defender, though, one thing that he's never gotten the credit
      for. KJ generally did seem to have a greater impact on better teams.
      What Kidd does to pass a ball is legendary. Overall, I don't think
      he has been as effective as KJ, but his passing flare is impressive.
      He helped make Michael Finley a star that he hasn't matched
      in Dallas (though KJ did, too). He made Antonio McDyess a star that
      he hasn't matched in Denver. He is making Shawn Marion a star. He
      even made Tom Gugliotta look good for a while. But it just bugs me
      that he has weaknesses and they do get in the way of the team winning
      big.

      > With all these variables in mind, how do we most efficiently
      compare
      > these players from two different eras with statistical formulas?
      > (Secondarily, I would like to know who is better kidd or kj).
      > Finally, I realize there is something called floor percentage but I
      > don't know its formula and the problems and solutions it might
      > present over other formulas. So, please give me some feedback on
      > these issues. Thanks for your time.

      Floor percentage is just an offensive evaluation, representing the
      fraction of a player's possessions that he contributes a score to.
      The formula is complex (and has simpler versions), but I'll get it
      out there eventually. I also calculate offensive ratings (points
      produced per 100 possessions) and individual win-loss records.

      What I have (going back only to '92 because I need to consolidate
      some stats)

      KJ
      Scor. Poss. Floor RTG Points Def. Net Net
      Poss. Pct. Prod. Rtg. Win% W-L
      1992 900 1581 0.569 113.5 1794 107.2 0.721 9.6-3.7
      1993 450 794 0.567 114.1 906 108.3 0.703 5.0-2.1
      1994 754 1322 0.571 116.5 1540 108.3 0.768 8.7-2.6
      1995 416 720 0.578 118.3 851 111.2 0.736 4.8-1.7
      1996 587 993 0.591 121.0 1202 109.1 0.848 7.8-1.4
      1997 738 1286 0.573 122.7 1578 108.6 0.883
      11.1-1.5
      1998 266 503 0.528 108.6 546 103.5 0.689 3.2-1.5
      2000 21 36 0.569 121.8 44 100.0 0.963 0.3-0.0

      Kidd
      1995 547 1129 0.484 102.3 1155 106.8 0.329 4.0-8.2
      1996 759 1628 0.467 104.1 1694 107.0 0.388 5.8-9.1
      1997 369 749 0.494 108.7 814 104.8 0.647 5.3-2.9
      1998 576 1193 0.483 104.5 1247 98.7 0.720 9.7-3.8
      1999 489 922 0.530 112.4 1037 99.4 0.883 8.6-1.1
      2000 557 1150 0.484 104.1 1197 95.7 0.801 9.6-2.4


      Totals
      Scor. Poss. Floor RTG Points Def. Net
      Poss. Pct. Prod. Rtg. Win% W-L
      KJ 4131 7235 0.571 117.0 8462 107.0 0.777 51-15
      Kidd 3298 6771 0.487 105.5 7144 102.8 0.610 43-27

      At their peaks, they are proving to be about equally effective. KJ
      really didn't have much of a ramp-up period (I don't show it),
      though, which makes sense since he actually stayed in school 4 years.
      Kidd may have co-won rookie of the year, but KJ actually had better
      numbers and Kidd won a lot of hype because Dallas didn't win many
      games.

      Between the two, you probably take KJ if you need a scorer and Kidd
      if you need a distributor. Both help a lot.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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