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3176Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao's Conditioning?

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  • igor eduardo küpfer
    Feb 6, 2004
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@...>
      > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      > Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 4:12 PM
      > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao's Conditioning?
      >
      >
      > > I know for a fact there have been games where he's gone with Taylor
      > > the entire fourth quarter.
      > >
      > > One interesting thing with a study like this is the chicken vs. egg
      > > question -- if we show he plays just as well with more minutes, does
      > > that mean that it's a genuine fact, or does it mean that Van Gundy
      > > doesn't play him a lot of minutes if he sees that Yao is playing like
      > > crap?
      > >
      >
      > I believe Van Gundy has been quoted as saying that he was limiting Yao's
      > minutes for physical reasons. That is, he wants to limit Yao's exposure to
      > potential injury. I don't really think that Yao's conditioning is in
      > question, considering how many minutes he played last season between his
      NBA
      > games and his off-season commitment to the national team.
      >
      > I began a study of this a couple of months ago, but didn't get far. Here's
      > what I have:
      >
      > | YAO'S MINUTES | ROCKET's LEAD
      > GAME | 1 2 3 4 OT | 1 2 3 4 OT
      > -----|---------------------------------------------------
      > 1 | 9 5 3 3 | 2 6 12 17
      > 2 | 8 12 8 8 | -9 -1 5 -8
      > 3 | 8 10 11 0 | -7 -20 -29 -32
      > 4 | 9 10 9 8 | 1 -7 -5 11
      > 5 | 10 7 12 5 | 3 6 6 10
      > 6 | 12 3 7 10 | 0 7 9 20
      > 7 | 12 5 9 5 | -2 -6 -10 -11
      > 8 | 9 6 12 9 | 3 -6 -1 5
      > 9 | 8 10 9 12 10 | -8 -3 2 0 -4
      > 10 | 7 12 7 12 | 3 10 10 8
      > 11 | 7 7 9 12 | 3 4 -1 2
      > 12 | 8 10 9 10 | 11 -3 -7 -7
      > 13 | 10 7 10 4 | 4 14 7 15
      >
      > AVG 9.0 8.0 8.8 7.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 2.3
      >
      > The numbers in the Yao's Minutes columns represent the number of minutes
      he
      > played in each quarter. The Rockets Lead numbers are their lead at the end
      > of each quarter (a negative number would be a Rockets deficit).
      >
      > There's not much to look at there, but you can see that in games where the
      > score difference is 5 or less points, Yao plays about 10 minutes in the
      4th.
      > When the lead is more than 5, he plays 6 minutes in the 4th.
      >

      Er, here I am referring to the score difference at the end of 3 quarters,
      which I took to be indicative of the closeness of the game.

      ed
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