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3175Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao's Conditioning?

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  • igor eduardo küpfer
    Feb 6, 2004
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      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 4:12 PM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao's Conditioning?


      > I know for a fact there have been games where he's gone with Taylor
      > the entire fourth quarter.
      >
      > One interesting thing with a study like this is the chicken vs. egg
      > question -- if we show he plays just as well with more minutes, does
      > that mean that it's a genuine fact, or does it mean that Van Gundy
      > doesn't play him a lot of minutes if he sees that Yao is playing like
      > crap?
      >

      I believe Van Gundy has been quoted as saying that he was limiting Yao's
      minutes for physical reasons. That is, he wants to limit Yao's exposure to
      potential injury. I don't really think that Yao's conditioning is in
      question, considering how many minutes he played last season between his NBA
      games and his off-season commitment to the national team.

      I began a study of this a couple of months ago, but didn't get far. Here's
      what I have:

      | YAO'S MINUTES | ROCKET's LEAD
      GAME | 1 2 3 4 OT | 1 2 3 4 OT
      -----|---------------------------------------------------
      1 | 9 5 3 3 | 2 6 12 17
      2 | 8 12 8 8 | -9 -1 5 -8
      3 | 8 10 11 0 | -7 -20 -29 -32
      4 | 9 10 9 8 | 1 -7 -5 11
      5 | 10 7 12 5 | 3 6 6 10
      6 | 12 3 7 10 | 0 7 9 20
      7 | 12 5 9 5 | -2 -6 -10 -11
      8 | 9 6 12 9 | 3 -6 -1 5
      9 | 8 10 9 12 10 | -8 -3 2 0 -4
      10 | 7 12 7 12 | 3 10 10 8
      11 | 7 7 9 12 | 3 4 -1 2
      12 | 8 10 9 10 | 11 -3 -7 -7
      13 | 10 7 10 4 | 4 14 7 15

      AVG 9.0 8.0 8.8 7.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 2.3

      The numbers in the Yao's Minutes columns represent the number of minutes he
      played in each quarter. The Rockets Lead numbers are their lead at the end
      of each quarter (a negative number would be a Rockets deficit).

      There's not much to look at there, but you can see that in games where the
      score difference is 5 or less points, Yao plays about 10 minutes in the 4th.
      When the lead is more than 5, he plays 6 minutes in the 4th.

      ed
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