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3107Re: Team Ratings (adjusted for schedule strength)

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  • Mike G
    Jan 29, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "ssims22000" <ssims2@i...>
      wrote:
      > The team ratings are updated through Jan. 27. I didn't have time
      > to include a home/away modifier, so all ratings are calculated the
      > same as before.

      I'm curious whether your ratings add anything beyond what Jeff
      Sagarin offers:

      http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0304.htm

      He uses point-differential, rather than off/def efficiencies. It
      seems to me a team's scoring differential is going to be equivalent
      to their efficiency differential. Whether they are better on
      offense or on defense is another matter; but whether team A is
      better than team B, does one need that distinction?

      Sagarin does use home/away in his SOS deduction. He ranks the
      Kings' SOS as #24 in the league (Spurs at #17).

      In your eXpected Wins column, I guess you are assuming a balanced
      schedule for everyone ?

      >
      >
      >
      > Team ORate DRate XWins OFlR DFlR
      > SAN 97.3 90.7 59.6 98.9 91.8
      > SAC 108.1 101.0 59.3 105.9 102.0
      > MIN 103.6 98.0 56.1 105.3 97.7
      > LAL 102.8 98.1 54.2 104.8 98.4
      > HOU 98.1 93.5 54.2 96.2 93.0
      > IND 99.3 94.7 54.1 98.8 95.8
      > DAL 108.9 103.9 54.1 107.3 102.9
      > DET 99.5 95.3 53.2 100.4 96.0
      > MEM 102.4 99.6 48.8 102.3 100.0
      > DEN 100.7 98.3 47.8 101.5 99.6
      > MIL 102.2 100.7 45.0 102.2 100.9
      > NJN 96.7 95.4 44.8 97.1 95.0
      > NOR 99.5 99.1 42.2 98.1 98.8
      > UTA 101.4 101.6 40.6 104.1 101.1
      > BOS 100.1 100.4 40.2 97.9 99.1
      > SEA 104.1 105.1 38.3 99.9 104.0
      > GSW 100.3 101.7 37.0 100.3 101.1
      > LAC 102.3 103.8 36.9 102.9 104.4
      > NYK 98.2 99.8 36.3 96.7 99.9
      > PHI 97.3 99.3 35.4 97.9 98.4
      > PHO 98.3 101.0 33.5 98.5 100.4
      > POR 102.4 105.8 31.6 103.7 105.6
      > CLE 97.5 100.8 31.5 99.7 100.2
      > MIA 97.0 100.8 30.3 96.5 100.6
      > TOR 93.9 98.1 28.7 93.3 99.8
      > ORL 101.8 108.0 24.8 101.2 107.7
      > WAS 94.5 100.9 23.6 95.5 100.8
      > ATL 96.2 102.8 23.2 97.1 102.8
      > CHI 95.1 102.1 22.3 95.4 102.1
      >
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