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257Re: Jordan

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  • Mike Goodman
    Oct 2, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., harlanzo@y... wrote:
      > I put together a list of similar players to see how they fared at
      > similar ages.
      > age 34 ppg rpg apg age 38 ppg rpg apg
      > Michael JOrdan 29 5.8 3.5 ?? ?? ??
      > Eddie Johnson 11.5 3.1 1.7 4.0 0.7 0.3
      > Dominique Wilkins 17.8 5.2 2.2 5.0 2.6 0.6
      > Dale Ellis 15.2 3.3 1.0 10.3 2.4 0.8

      This list is quite impressive in what does not show up, which is any
      quality production from a 38-year-old guard in the NBA. Ever.
      So, If Jordan can get over 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg, he is the best 38-yr-
      old guard ever. That would be yet another milestone for him.

      Of course everyone expects more than 10-3-2. If he insists on the
      minutes, 20-6-4 should be within reach.

      In fact, I did a little bit of 'analysis' along these lines.
      Excel does a crude extrapolation of Jordan's last 3 seasons ('96-
      '98), and 'predicts', for this year, 22.6, 5.5, 2.3.
      For next year, 20.5, 5.3, 1.9.

      This assumes he gets around 36 minutes, and for all we know, we may
      see him taken out 'for defensive purposes', shocking though the
      thought may be. Also assumed is that scoring will be his designated
      purpose, as it became increasingly toward the 'end' of his career.

      I haven't kept up on whether he can fire his coach, but in any event
      there will now be, for better or worse, a strange precedent in
      player/coach relations.


      >.... There is an argument that player
      > condtioning is different today and more players will last longer
      than
      > did in the 60s and 70s and some players (like West and Drexler)
      > retired because they lost the desire to play and not necessarily
      the
      > physical ability.

      I have long wondered if time away from the game might in fact enhance
      longevity. Perhaps not in the total of games or minutes one can
      accumulate in a career, but in just this factor we are considering:
      whether a player can contribute at age 38.
      In other words, in a parallel universe, where Jordan had been playing
      35-40 minutes a game for 3 more years, would he be completely spent
      at age 38?
      I do suspect the first retirement may have rejuvenated his desire,
      and that maybe playing through those years would have led to fewer
      than 6 titles, rather than more (as is commonly assumed).

      > Time will tell on this part. But it is clear that
      > the great weight of evidence is against any perimeter player still
      > being effective at age 38. That being said, Jordan was so much
      > better than any of these players at 34 that it could be argued that
      > he is so off the charts that at age 38 he will still be great. I
      > hope this is true. However, I am skeptical how good he will be.
      > Ultimately, i believe MJ will be a top 5 shooting guard (or small
      > forward if he chooses to play this instead). It will be
      interesting
      > to see.

      I think the Wiz need other than a designated scorer. Richmond was
      that. Look for Jordan to play 32 minutes, getting 15 pts, 5 reb, 6
      ast. (It takes less energy to pass than to score).
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