2453Re: Oscar's Effect -- getting technical
- Oct 4, 2003--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
> The 2% difference is interesting, but I wonder how much of it wasother
> because of the fact that Oscar was taking all the shots. So the
> guys were taking fewer shots, but because they had to create fewerUsing a slightly different sample of players, I found a
> for themselves, they ended up shooting a higher percentage...
significantly smaller increase in shooting %, with/without Oscar.
I used the combined shooting %, rather than raw FG%. Maybe one
difference is that with Oscar, guys were spotting up and shooting
(thus a higher FG%); and without Oscar, guys were 'creating',
driving, getting to the foul line (thus a better 'scoring
In either case, I found no evidence that Oscar cut into anyone's
stats, and seems to have upped the scoring production. I haven't
broken it down into his Royals career (dominator), and his Bucks
> Kind ofAre you predicting less scoring but higher efficiencies from these
> like what will happen to Gary Payton and Karl Malone this year. If
> that's the case, you should see the same effect with a lot of high-
> scoring players.
guys? It will be interesting, to say the least.
I wonder about the 'Effect' that a lot of dominating players have on
various teammates. Not just point guards (though that's essentially
their job), but other guys who demand the ball a lot.
One could further break it down by position. Does Karl Malone's
presence enhance the stats of other forwards, while eating into the
FGA of shooting guards? etc.
> Let's call this the "Ainge Effect" (side note: this theory is
> in beta, which is one reason I'm testing it out on this audience).Boston
> Danny Ainge averaged 15.7 points a game for title-contending
> while shooting 49 percent. He gets traded to crappy Sacramento andresult,
> suddenly he has to creat a lot more shots for himself. As a
> his average goes up to 17.5 and 17.9, but his percentage drops tobe a
> 45.7 and 43.8. Then he goes to title-contending Portland and can
> complementary player again; his average drops back down to 11.0,but
> he shoots 47.2 percent.There's abundant evidence that this happens. There might even be a
formula that tends to equalize these factors. Multiplying shooting
% by points-per-minute tends to even out these changes-in-scoring-
load produced by changes-in-roles.
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