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2453Re: Oscar's Effect -- getting technical

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  • Mike G
    Oct 4, 2003
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
      <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > The 2% difference is interesting, but I wonder how much of it was
      > because of the fact that Oscar was taking all the shots. So the
      > guys were taking fewer shots, but because they had to create fewer
      > for themselves, they ended up shooting a higher percentage...

      Using a slightly different sample of players, I found a
      significantly smaller increase in shooting %, with/without Oscar.

      I used the combined shooting %, rather than raw FG%. Maybe one
      difference is that with Oscar, guys were spotting up and shooting
      (thus a higher FG%); and without Oscar, guys were 'creating',
      driving, getting to the foul line (thus a better 'scoring

      In either case, I found no evidence that Oscar cut into anyone's
      stats, and seems to have upped the scoring production. I haven't
      broken it down into his Royals career (dominator), and his Bucks
      career (distributor).

      > Kind of
      > like what will happen to Gary Payton and Karl Malone this year. If
      > that's the case, you should see the same effect with a lot of high-
      > scoring players.

      Are you predicting less scoring but higher efficiencies from these
      guys? It will be interesting, to say the least.

      I wonder about the 'Effect' that a lot of dominating players have on
      various teammates. Not just point guards (though that's essentially
      their job), but other guys who demand the ball a lot.

      One could further break it down by position. Does Karl Malone's
      presence enhance the stats of other forwards, while eating into the
      FGA of shooting guards? etc.

      > Let's call this the "Ainge Effect" (side note: this theory is
      > in beta, which is one reason I'm testing it out on this audience).
      > Danny Ainge averaged 15.7 points a game for title-contending
      > while shooting 49 percent. He gets traded to crappy Sacramento and
      > suddenly he has to creat a lot more shots for himself. As a
      > his average goes up to 17.5 and 17.9, but his percentage drops to
      > 45.7 and 43.8. Then he goes to title-contending Portland and can
      be a
      > complementary player again; his average drops back down to 11.0,
      > he shoots 47.2 percent.

      There's abundant evidence that this happens. There might even be a
      formula that tends to equalize these factors. Multiplying shooting
      % by points-per-minute tends to even out these changes-in-scoring-
      load produced by changes-in-roles.
      > Thoughts?
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