2335Re: SABR/Sports Econ update
- Jul 30 4:12 PM--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...>
lots of good stuff...
> But, it'll be hard. There's not just the quality-of-competitionissues,
> but the context issues that we constantly mention on this list:players
> roles on a team, coaches' strategic decisions, teammates' abilitiesand
> roles. I doubt that any purely stat-based formula could havepredicted
> that Michael Jordan would become the NBA superstar that he did --sure
> he came from a good college program which played tough competition,such
> but there's dozens of players every year who come out of similar
> programs with similar stats. When NBA scouts saw future stardom forand
> Jordan, they were looking at things like his fundamentals (as DeanO
> mentioned with James) and his physical gifts -- his explosiveness
> vertical. In other words, to use the baseball term, his "tools".What
> marked Jordan apart from other college players was the very thingthat
> Beane in _Moneyball_ derides: looking beyond a players stats, athis
> tools.MJ is a very interesting example actually. I did calculate his
college stats a long time ago (1991, I think) and they were VERY
good. But centers definitely occasionally have numbers as good,
implying that other big men dominate the college game as much as MJ
did (though not as much now with the 3pt line and defensive
emphasis). But MJ was not a center. I don't know how important that
is, but I keep it in mind as I continue this work.
I did recently catch an old UNC game on TV when MJ played. It was
remarkable to look back on him and definitely see the same Michael
that dominated the pros. The components were definitely there.
Replace the face and you'd recognize the body and the moves. Most
dominant player you'll ever see on the baseline even with Coach Smith
reigning his shots in. And, on the defensive end, he played all over
the court in this YouAreTheDefense position out of a zone or man.
Smith was always the expert at adapting to his players. And he
certainly adjusted for MJ.
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