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233Re: Similarity Scores

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  • Mike Goodman
    Sep 12, 2001
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      ....discriminant analysis and logistical regression .... Euclidean
      distance,
      > sqrt( X^2 + Y^2 + Z^2 + ...) where X, Y, Z, etc. are the difference
      > between, say, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird ....., Mahalonobis
      distance does NOT take into account the second
      > problem, that certain variables might deserve more weight than
      others.
      >
      A friend of mine says "Anyone who drives faster than me is a fukkin
      maniac, and anyone who drives slower is a goddamn asshole".
      Similarly, I say, anyone who uses less math than me is some kind of
      moron, and whoever uses more must be some kind of geek.

      > Also, after the initial analysis, I'd want to put in some sort of
      > correction for era or game pace. Bob Cousy's 43% career FG% (or
      whatever
      > it was, I'm saying this off the top of my head) reminds me more of
      Isiah
      > Thomas's 46% than it does Alan Iverson's 43%. Despite the
      superficial
      > similarity of Cousy's and Iverson's FG%. (Again I'm not vouching
      for
      > those specific numbers, just saying that I'd rather see the numbers
      in
      > context, i.e. corrected for era and/or game pace.)

      Cousy never once managed to make 40% of his FG during a season; his
      career scoring pct. was .440. (Iverson's is .500; Isiah's was .508).
      >
      > For Hall of Fame purposes, I think discriminant analysis or
      logistic or
      > probit regressions are better than merely measuring distance. I
      did this
      > once for NBA all-stars one season, the predictions were not 100%
      accurate
      > but you could at least separate the players into three groups:
      clear
      > all-stars, clear non-stars, and the "on the bubble" players.
      >
      >
      > --MKT
      >
      >
      Last season, the West selected my top 11 Western players to the
      allstar team, but skipped #12 Nowitzki in favor of teammate Michael
      Finley (#30 or thereabouts).
      Meanwhile the East seemed to pick at random, ignoring most forwards
      as they had ignored all point guards the year before.
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