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232Re: Similarity Scores

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  • Mike Goodman
    Sep 12, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
      > We started discussing this over in APBR, but I think the details of
      > making this work can get technical, so I brought it here.

      Excellent move, Dean
      >
      > One of the problems I had was with redundancy of stats. FG% is
      > reflected in FG and FGA, for example. James didn't worry about it
      > too much, but I do in basketball.
      >
      This is one reason I have concentrated on combining all scoring-
      related data into one "scoring ability" number. It seems quite clear
      to me that "points is points", and likewise, attempts are attempts
      (or possessions used up). Thus the "scoring efficiency", which I
      believe is also a term used in another way, and which implies to me
      that it includes turnovers incurred while attempting to score,
      offensive fouls, and the "ability to get a shot off"; so I might
      prefer to call Pts/(Attempts*2) something like "scoring percentage".
      I also feel comfortable with using a player's ScoPct/.527
      (historical standard ScoPct) as a number to factor into a player's
      points-per-minute rate. I justify this by noting that a high-
      scoring, low-percent scorer on a weak team would just have to shoot
      less (and take higher-percentage shots) on a better team.
      Conversely, a low-scoring, high-percentage shooter on a good team
      would almost certainly be asked to take more shots on a weaker team.
      Generally, his percentage would go down, but possibly his "scoring
      ability" number would be fairly constant as he moves from team to
      team.
      Ty Corbin had such a career spell, as he went from a go-to guy on
      the woeful Wolves, to a contributor on the contending Jazz; his
      minutes and ppg went rollercoastering, but his measurable 'scoring
      ability' was pretty constant.

      >....In the old argument
      of
      > Shawn Kemp, perhaps we find that the most similar players to him
      are
      > all out of the HOF -- then that suggests he isn't that great.
      Maybe
      > his best season compares with those put up by Wilt, KMalone, etc.,
      > suggesting great seasons.
      >
      In one member's standardized numbers, Kemp's career 'abilities'
      are :
      21 pts, 12 reb, 2 ast, 2 blk. This compares to Artis Gilmore, Moses
      Malone. But many fewer minutes for Kemp, and lesser totals.
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